Interview
War in Ukraine: are sanctions working?
- The Western alliance intends to maintain severe economic pressure, including a potential freeze of $630 billion in Russian central bank assets, to backstop measures aimed at crippling the Russian war machine and economy.
- A generalized loss of confidence in the financial system is forecasted, characterized by a falling ruble and collapsing share prices, while oil prices are projected to reach approximately $110 due to increased transaction complexity.
- Annual inflation is expected to spike to an alarming 70%, severely impacting ordinary citizens and causing Russia's "Fortress Russia" strategy to collapse as a "Potemkin structure."
- Sanctions alone are not anticipated to compel Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, though they may alter leadership incentives in the short term to allow for a partial scaling back of sanctions in exchange for reduced violence.
- Russia may economically escalate through curtailing gas exports to Europe, restricting specialist metal supplies, or launching cyber attacks, with a specific threat to withhold rare gases used in semiconductor etching if full control of Ukraine is achieved.
- While immediate withdrawal is unlikely, sustained sanctions are expected to significantly degrade Russia's economic and military capabilities if the current path of action continues.