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War in Ukraine: how has the world changed?
- The conflict's consequences are projected to persist for years and shape the remainder of the global order, with Europe's energy security and defense capabilities undergoing complete transformation within months.
- The transatlantic alliance is expected to assume a significantly different structure depending on the war's outcome, while Russia will emerge weakened with fumbled diplomacy, significant reputational damage, and an accelerated potential for regime collapse due to elite exodus.
- Global security dynamics may shift as nuclear weapons regain prominence, potentially serving as shields for China or enabling other nations to view them as a deterrent behind which military offensives can be launched.
- Inflation exacerbated by the war could trigger a US recession, while supply chain disruptions may take one to two years to fully manifest, accelerating a major redesign of global supply chains.
- China is developing a cohesive plan to protect its economy from Western sanctions, which may represent the war's single biggest economic implication, even as the West faces the challenge of convincing the rest of the world to share the burden.
- A long-lasting impact from sanctions is anticipated, and while the outlook includes the possibility of Ukrainian victory, the long-term global landscape remains contingent on the war's resolution.