Fireside Chat, Interview, Webinar
War in Ukraine: is a peace deal possible?
- Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are projected to continue indefinitely, with current talks occurring independently of front-line events.
- The Ukrainian side is viewed as possessing genuine negotiation authority, whereas the Russian side is described as lacking such authority, with Vladimir Putin holding sole decision-making power.
- The "Finnish model" of armed neutrality is identified as a primary potential security framework, intended to render Ukraine "indigestible" to further aggression.
- Ukrainian negotiators are expected to remain highly resistant to territorial concessions, driven by a belief in their ability to outlast Russia unless the conflict dynamics shift fundamentally.
- Vladimir Putin is assessed as unable to accept a peace agreement without claiming a domestic victory due to constraints regarding humiliation and the necessity to avoid a complete loss.
- A potential cessation of hostilities is predicted if Putin accepts that "denazification" is nonexistent and that "demilitarization" has been partially achieved through damage to Ukrainian forces.
- Putin's expectations that events will unfold according to his plan are forecast to fail because he allegedly lacks faith in the will and agency of the populace, misjudging the nature of war.
- The threat of using the Russian nuclear arsenal is characterized as Putin's most significant leverage card intended to deter Western intervention.
- The actual deployment of nuclear weapons is not anticipated to occur easily, attributed to hesitation from Putin's entourage regarding the potential consequences for their own families.
- Ukraine is expected to refuse any loss of pre-war territory and will not recognize Russian sovereignty over areas held prior to 1991, including Crimea.