Interview
War in Ukraine: what’s happening in Kyiv?
- Russia has threatened nuclear escalation against the West if it interferes with its "denazification" aims in Ukraine, while reports indicate an invasion could occur within two days, two weeks, or the coming days.
- Richard Ensor anticipates the invasion will create a "new beginning" for Ukraine, Europe, and the world, with a western response unfolding over "several hours and days and weeks" involving a "very large package of sanctions."
- Civilians in Kyiv are expected to stockpile supplies for a prolonged stay and may "pick up guns" following the president's authorization for anyone wishing to defend their country to obtain one.
- A "massive refugee crisis" is projected for Poland and the rest of the EU, with uncertainty surrounding border policies and the capacity of countries to manage the initial influx of people moving toward Moldova and Poland.
- Questions regarding refugee management are expected to dominate discussions in the "weeks to come," alongside potential debates on whether nations will maintain open borders or close them.
- If the war continues or if regime change in Kiev occurs, Ensor warns that cities could become "unrecognizable in a matter of days and weeks," resulting in a "long bloody protracted battle" with a death toll previously thought impossible for Europe.
- There is significant uncertainty regarding the West's "very strong response," though the expectation is that military aid will continue flowing and a robust reaction from the EU and United States will follow.