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War in Ukraine: whose side is China on?
- China is expected to avoid describing the conflict as an "invasion" to prevent acknowledging Russian aggression, while simultaneously seeking to maintain a stable global commercial trading order due to its deep integration into supply chains.
- Strategic calculations suggest China views the current geopolitical environment as a historic struggle against the post-WWII rules-based order, with some state media analysts anticipating benefits from the conflict diverting American focus to Europe, though China does not desire a formal military alliance with Russia.
- Military and diplomatic actions are projected to be limited, as China is unlikely to provide military aid given its lack of recent combat experience since the late 1970s, nor will it host peace conferences to avoid appearing biased toward Russia.
- Economic interests will drive a self-interested approach where China prioritizes preventing sanctions on its financial sector and companies over assisting Russia in evading existing restrictions.
- The outlook identifies significant risks regarding escalation, specifically predicting that the use of chemical or tactical nuclear weapons, or a shift toward a broader world war, would cause the Chinese economy to collapse into a tailspin.