Interview, Fireside Chat, Podcast
We Should Not Die as Traders · Patrick Petersson
- Markets are predicted to experience high volatility for only a few days before normalizing, with specific indicators like the ES 5-minute chart ATR reaching 50–60 points and NQ candles hitting 100 points in minutes, posing a 10x risk increase for those who do not adjust position sizes or exit trades.
- Peterson plans to transition into hedge fund management by accessing investor capital and utilizing U.S. citizenship/green card status for licenses, intending to fund a personal account with $60,000 monthly real estate cash flow to trade money he does not need, thereby aiming for 100% earnings retention without profit shares or external rules.
- A long-term real estate goal is projected to yield 100 apartments generating guaranteed cash flow sufficient to cover $10,000 to $60,000 monthly in living expenses, allowing financial independence without reliance on trading income.
- Peterson intends to cease formal mentorship for others to focus exclusively on his five-year-old son, teaching him a simple strategy involving waiting for VIX drops and risk management concepts to prepare him for a future in trading or professional sports.
- Traders relying on prop firms for two to five months are predicted to "blow up" accounts upon switching to real money or returning to employment, with Peterson expecting the prop firm "casino" model to continue profiting from these failures rather than genuine trader success.
- High volatility events (VIX 50–70) are expected to cause significant losses for those who trade normal position sizes, fail to review daily lessons, lack education on VIX interpretation, or trade based on feelings rather than written plans and A+ setups.
- Traders who wait for the VIX to decline before trading are predicted to profit significantly by avoiding spikes, whereas those who trade during volatility spikes or fail to side-by-side ES and VIX charts are expected to suffer "stupid losses" and blow-ups.
- The financial media is expected to neglect risk education during high volatility as owners lack financial interest in trader survival, while online course sellers without a verified five-year track record of trading their own capital are predicted to teach ineffective methods.
- Traders lacking real prop desk environments and experienced mentors are projected to require four to five years to achieve professional skill levels compared to two years with support, while those who do not maintain daily discipline in life or review performance will likely fail to improve.
- Peterson anticipates that a simple, honest educational approach can transform young people from diverse socioeconomic backgrounds into financially independent traders over a 10 to 30 year horizon, potentially saving lives and reducing losses associated with complex options mechanics.
- Traders who blow up prop firm accounts and later claim funding are still expected to be losing traders if they have not demonstrated profitability on their own capital for five years, and those who rely on certificates to sell courses are predicted to trap new traders in bad habits.
- Peterson expects the current high volatility period to result in many traders returning to employment after losing funds, while those who maintain rules, discipline, and experience with their own capital are predicted to avoid these outcomes and not need to chase losses with larger sizes.