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What does three degrees of global warming look like? | The Economist

The Economist
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  • Current policy trajectories indicate at least a 25% probability of reaching three degrees of warming by 2100, with a 16% rise in greenhouse gas emissions projected from 2010 levels by 2030 despite existing pledges.
  • Even under optimistic scenarios where all net-zero targets are met, the best estimate remains around two degrees of warming by the end of the century, though a 5% risk of hitting three degrees persists.
  • Without drastic measures to stop fossil fuel burning, extreme weather events could become the norm, with children born today facing up to seven times the risk of extreme weather compared to their grandparents.
  • Climate migrants in Bangladesh's capital are increasing at a rate of nearly 400,000 annually, a trend climate models suggest could intensify significantly due to swollen rivers and melting glaciers.
  • In a three-degree scenario, annual rainfall in Central America's Dry Corridor could drop by up to 14 percent, extending droughts and potentially forcing more families to emigrate to the United States, where migration from Guatemala has already quadrupled since 1990.
  • Global sea levels are projected to rise by half a meter from 2005 levels by 2100, threatening low-lying cities like Lagos where up to one-third of the population could be displaced, and potentially eroding villages like Toguru, Fiji within 10 to 15 years.
  • Extreme heat could render parts of the tropics, the Persian Gulf, Mexico, and the southeastern United States uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures reaching human limits by the end of the century.
  • In a three-degree world, over 25% of the global population could face extreme droughts for at least a month annually, while Northern Africa might experience multi-year droughts and European capitals like Paris and Berlin would endure more severe heat waves.
  • Disasters worsened by climate change could displace tens of millions of people annually in a three-degree scenario, leading to increased competition for water and other resources while exacerbating national tensions and risking societal collapse.
  • Smallholder farms under two hectares currently produce a third of global food, yet nearly two-thirds of smallholders in Central America's Dry Corridor already live in poverty due to intensified dry seasons that threaten economic viability.
  • Urban areas that fail to prepare for these eventualities face deadly risks, particularly where wet bulb temperatures could prevent significant manual labor for parts of the year, effectively removing regions from the economy.
  • A future with three degrees of warming is characterized as "real, bad, global trouble" driven by slow governmental progress, though experts note there remains a window to reduce emissions and keep such a scenario fictional.