Interview, Fireside Chat
What is the future of the UN?
- The UN system faces potential destruction or decay due to US funding cuts of up to one-third, ongoing policy reviews, and increasing US questioning of core values such as border sanctity.
- Multiple scenarios are considered for the UN's future: a "rogue" path where the US exits key bodies like UNESCO and the WHO; a "decaying" path involving reduced funding but continued survival of approximately 140 agencies due to vested interests; or a "Trumpified" path featuring potential support for refugee policies to limit border crossings and showy diplomatic deals.
- Key drivers of instability include key UN members led by France recognizing a Palestinian state, a US vote denial risk due to unpaid arrears potentially causing a "bust up," and a growing row over Palestine that could snowball into a broader crisis.
- The more likely outcome is a gradual parting of ways where the US retains a presence but neglects the UN, resulting in a shrunken organization that does less but operates functionally at a technical level through bodies like the International Civil Aviation Authority.
- Risks associated with a US departure or withdrawal include a diplomatic vacuum allowing Russia and China to dominate global rules on artificial intelligence and IT firms, creating a hostile geopolitical environment.
- Internal US dynamics influence the outlook, with the Israeli government relying on far-right support for plans to push Palestinians out of Gaza and annex territory, while Donald Trump may pursue improved relations with China and Russia and align on Syria.
- Long-term survival of the UN is not guaranteed by technical utility alone, as historical precedent like the failure of the League of Nations demonstrates that member will is required to prevent organizational collapse.