Interview
What's China really up to in the Arctic? | The Economist
- China aims to become a "polar great power" by 2030, despite lacking Arctic territory (its northernmost point is 900 miles from the Arctic Circle).
- In 2018, China published its first official Arctic policy, introducing the "Polar Silk Road" to shift focus from scientific research to securing economic and political benefits.
- The centerpiece of the Polar Silk Road is the Northern Sea Route, billed as an expansion of the 2013 Belt and Road Initiative.
- The Northern Sea Route reduces transit time between Asia and Europe to approximately 20 days, compared to 40 days via the Suez Canal.
- China is investing heavily in ships and ports to make the Northern Sea Route viable as Arctic ice retreats.
- China and Russia maintain close cooperation on the Northern Sea Route, with Russia controlling most of the coastline.
- China seeks access to Arctic ports, airports, and natural resources, including rare earths, oil, and natural gas.
- In 2016, a Chinese company acquired a stake in a major mining project in southern Greenland.
- In 2017, Chinese firms negotiated with the Greenland government to finance three airports and manage rare earth and uranium processing.
- The 2016 Greenland mining project was frozen due to local environmental concerns.
- Denmark vetoed the 2017 airport proposal and a separate Chinese attempt to purchase an abandoned naval base, citing US pressure.
- Western resistance to Chinese Arctic expansion stems from the scale of Beijing's ambitions and fears regarding military-civil fusion.
- Xi Jinping's military-civil fusion campaign heightens concerns that civilian Arctic infrastructure may support military operations.
- China has established research bases in Norway and Iceland and engages in joint scientific initiatives with Nordic countries.
- Western officials suspect Chinese scientific activities are gathering data for military navigation and missile guidance.
- In early 2024, President Trump accused Chinese naval vessels of lingering off Greenland, a claim military officials from other Arctic states found to lack evidence.
- US threats regarding Greenland have intensified tensions between Washington and NATO allies, specifically Denmark.
- China's intensified cooperation with Russia following the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine has increased regional security concerns.
- The accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO means all Arctic states except Russia are now NATO members.
- The shift in the Arctic geopolitical landscape has caused nations to prioritize security over peaceful cooperation, complicating China's strategic goals.