Panel
What’s Next for China: The Master Plan for the New Economic Phase | Global Investors' Symposium 2026
Milken InstituteDeborah Wong, Shenglin Ben, Chen Ding, David He, Angela Zhao, Ben Shenglin, Ding Chen
- China aims to be a world leader in AI and smart manufacturing by 2030, with technology self-sufficiency designated as the top priority for the next 5 to 20 years alongside national security.
- By 2030, the service sector is projected to reach a scale of 100 trillion yuan, while the 15th five-year plan targets a mid-level advanced economy status in terms of GDP per capita by 2035.
- Healthcare AI and medical tourism are expected to emerge from biomedicine innovations, and the elderly care sector presents significant opportunities due to an aging population, with projections indicating a quarter of Asia's population will be over 60 by 2050.
- The international community is expected to increasingly view China as an embedded part of business portfolios over the next five years, driven by the saturation of the domestic market and the critical need for companies to go global.
- AI technology is forecasted to continue attracting long-term inflows and reshape logistics through dark factories, dark warehouses, drone delivery, and autonomous truck systems, with efficiency in automated warehouses increasing fourfold.
- Domestic consumption trends are shifting toward experiences, health, and cultural confidence among youth, with specific growth expected in the outdoor market, travel, IP, pets, and the psychology sector.
- Consumer platforms like Xiaohongshu are expected to see substantial growth with large consumer companies investing over 100 million yuan or placing over 1 billion yuan in advertising value on the platform.
- The domestic logistics market is anticipated to shift from serving multinational corporations to serving 80% of domestic brands, while warehouses may convert drive-through facilities into cold storage for quality products.
- China's financial sector is expected to play an expanded role in technology innovation, with policymakers prioritizing technology, inclusive, green, e-, and retirement financing to support growth.
- By the end of 2025, China's flagship AOM ETF is projected to reach approximately 80 billion Hong Kong dollars.
- China is expected to lead in energy generation, potentially producing twice as much as the U.S., and to offer competitive advantages through low infrastructure and energy supply costs.
- Chinese brands are expected to expand globally, driven by economic development and improved cultural exchanges, while companies using AI in the short term will likely gain efficiency advantages.
- The financial sector and semiconductor industry face specific dynamics, with semiconductors identified as the most vulnerable sector in AI competition while the financial sector is expected to do more to contribute to tech innovation.
- While China aims to grow at a lower rate with higher quality over the next phase, social anxiety regarding job displacement and the future persists, prompting expectations for strengthened social safety nets and income improvements in both urban and rural areas.
- Despite potential fuel cost increases due to geopolitical crises, the adoption of EV cars and trucks in China is expected to accelerate, and global investors are urged to allocate capital to China to capture the next wave of growth.
- Uncertainty remains regarding how current policies on original innovation and domestic consumption will ultimately translate into the real economy.