Interview, Fireside Chat
What’s Next for the Business of Sports
- Sports seasons are projected to conclude or advance to postseason phases by 2030 or within approximately two years, contingent on specific sport calendars and COVID-19 restrictions.
- The NFL may implement player "bubbles" for the postseason to secure television revenue if necessary, while the 2021 season is expected to feature attendance limitations and operational irregularities, with a significant fan return anticipated by 2022.
- Hockey and basketball seasons in 2021 will commence based on fan capacity limits and safety protocols, with a higher risk of schedule disruptions due to viral infections extending through winter.
- The Big Ten and Pac-12 conferences are expected to prioritize playing seasons to maintain revenue streams required for secondary sports programs, citing the necessity of the $50 million per-school payout to support their financial structures.
- College football is anticipated to experience increased postponements as the season progresses, though a playoff is considered virtually certain to crown a national champion, potentially involving a "bubble" environment for the final four teams.
- Financial instability is projected to force more Division I schools to cut varsity programs and make it highly difficult for Division II and III institutions to sustain historical athletic and academic funding levels.
- Franchise valuations are forecast to rise but at a slower rate than the previous decade, constrained by a limited pool of investors capable of writing $2 billion control checks and a scarcity of direct equity funding.
- Owners may increasingly rely on limited partner capital or debt financing to acquire teams, driving continued innovation in franchise financing to support growing valuations.
- Funds such as Dial Capital and Arctos are expected to evolve by acquiring limited partnership interests and retaining them for extended periods without forcing liquidity events.
- Athletes are likely to maintain increased public activism on social justice issues, supported by ongoing endorsement from leagues and owners following the precedent established by the NBA in August.