Interview, Fireside Chat
What’s on the Minds of Institutional Investors
- The broader market is expected to experience limited movement with minimal macro spillover, as the current event is viewed as contained.
- Growth assets are anticipated to strengthen in Q1 driven by vaccination progress and fiscal tailwinds, with the pace of return to full economic speed correlating to vaccination rates.
- Survey data indicates that more than 50% of participants expect half of the U.S. population to be vaccinated around June or July, a timeline where the spread between research calls and investor expectations is expected to tighten.
- Significant monthly GDP upswings are projected to accumulate by the end of the year.
- A potential shift in investor perception regarding the correlation between rates and equities is occurring, accompanied by concerns that a rapid rise in rates could negatively impact equity prices.
- Volatility in rates, particularly real rates, with potential for sell-offs or moves higher, is anticipated alongside a possible flip in the perception of the rates-equities relationship.
- Conviction in the short dollar trade has suffered significant reductions and is not expected to recover immediately, while investors may avoid currencies facing vaccination delays or domestic growth challenges.
- The bullish view on the euro has likely evaporated, resulting in a neutral outlook, and delays in the EU's vaccination campaign are seen as potential negative catalysts for regional growth.