Fireside Chat, Interview
What’s the Outlook for Retirement Savers in 2021?
- Annual corporate results linked to 10-K filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission are expected within the next couple of weeks.
- Corporate defined benefit pension funded ratios are projected to remain largely unaffected in 2021 due to low interest rates and elevated liabilities, despite strong financial asset returns in 2020.
- Interest rates are anticipated to begin rising in the first few weeks of 2021, which would lower the value of pension liabilities and potentially increase funded ratios.
- Investors face expectations of a low return environment and lower public equity and fixed income returns compared to historical levels, extending through the next several years.
- Achieving nominal return targets of 6% to 7% is expected to be challenging for investors over the next couple of years given starting conditions at the beginning of 2021.
- Increased concern regarding future inflation is anticipated alongside a continued trend of investor allocation toward private markets, including private equity, private debt, and real estate.
- Plan sponsors unable to capitalize on early 2020 dislocations are expected to seek strategic partners to navigate the difficult environment.
- The opportunity set for active equity management is projected to improve due to increased return dispersion and decreased dispersion around analyst earnings estimates.
- Corporate pension plans may utilize leverage instruments, such as interest rate swaps and futures, to hedge liabilities and shift capital toward return-generating portfolio components.
- Retirement-related legislation is expected to be active in 2021, with bipartisan support likely continuing for measures like Secure Act 2.0 to expand coverage and savings options.
- Investors are expected to re-evaluate risk tolerance in early 2021, potentially shifting toward managed account offerings based on realized positions regarding over-exposure or under-exposure to risk.
- The industry will focus on converting asset pools into retirement income streams as more participants retire without defined benefit programs.
- Institutional clients are advised to maintain long-term investment horizons to realize benefits similar to those following the 2020 market volatility.