Interview, Panel
What will China do in 2022?
- Xi Jinping aims to secure a third term at the party congress next autumn, with a potential path to a fourth term driven by centralized party control and the establishment of a "third five-year term" justification.
- The administration's agenda includes curbing the monopoly power of big tech companies through authoritarian measures that centralize authority, a strategy that previously destroyed approximately two trillion dollars in market value.
- Domestic support remains high due to nationalism and the perception of COVID-19 success based on low death rates, though this view overlooks significant dissent evidenced by journalist arrests and the detention of over a million Uyghurs in Xinjiang re-education camps.
- Private businesses are now strictly aligned with party goals following the severe clampdown and assertion of control observed in 2021, with the leadership determined to become more assertive internationally while increasing authoritarianism domestically.
- Bilateral relations are not expected to thaw under the Biden administration; instead, the interlinked nature of the economies suggests framing the rivalry as a "new Cold War" is inaccurate and counterproductive, as it could alienate Southeast Asian nations that prioritize Chinese prosperity.
- The status quo regarding Taiwan is expected to persist for the next decade through mutual balancing, though China views the acquisition of the island as an absolute national priority that it will pursue within the next 20 to 30 years.
- A strategic dilemma exists for the United States where failing to protect Taiwan could undermine security guarantees to South Korea and Japan, though immediate conflict is considered unlikely due to excessive risks for all parties involved.
- The future trajectory of China is identified as a critical global issue, yet understanding the internal dynamics remains highly difficult and "scary" due to the opaque nature of developments within the country.