Interview, Fireside Chat
What would happen if North Korea launched a nuclear weapon at the US? | Annie Jacobsen
- U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals total 5,000 warheads each, maintaining a deterrence posture reliant on the threat of mutual destruction, though global stockpiles have shifted from a peak of 70,000 in 1986 to approximately 12,500, a trend currently at risk of reversing toward proliferation including in Iran and potentially North Korea via orbital satellites.
- U.S. strategic forces include 400 land-based ICBMs, nuclear-armed submarines capable of striking within 10 minutes, and 66 strategic bombers, with 150,000 personnel under STRATCOM rehearsed for immediate counterattack, creating a system where the president holds sole launch authority with no approval required from the Secretary of Defense, Joint Chiefs, or Congress.
- A "launch on warning" policy dictates that upon detecting an incoming ballistic missile, the U.S. prepares an immediate retaliatory strike within a six-minute decision window, driven by "use it or lose it" logic to prevent the loss of the land-based arsenal and a "Damage Limitation Requirement" to ensure limited future damage to the U.S.
- Critical vulnerabilities include a potential conflict between Secret Service protection priorities and military launch mandates, a lack of crisis communication lines between U.S. and Russian leadership preventing direct reassurance, and flawed Russian early warning systems capable of mistaking clouds or sunlight for hundreds of incoming missiles.
- Escalation risks involve "madman logic" attributed to North Korean leadership, hypersonic missiles that do not alter the fundamental 26-to-30-minute flight times of ICBMs, and the inability of U.S. Minuteman missiles to target North Korea without overflying Russia, while a single misunderstanding could trigger nuclear annihilation.
- The consequences of a nuclear exchange are described as inevitable total apocalypse with no scenario ending in victory, involving potential exchanges of over 1,000 missiles, where a one-megaton strike on Washington D.C. would create a 19-football-field fireball, obliterate a one-mile square radius, and cause third-degree burns or death to millions in surrounding rings, with fallout potentially killing half of China's population.
- A super EMP detonated 300 miles above the U.S. could shut down the electrical grid and SCADA systems in one second, halting fresh water, sanitation, gas pumps, and communications, causing at least 10% of all cars to stop simultaneously, with experts warning this would cause catastrophic failure of systems of systems.
- Future outlooks suggest the U.S. defense establishment maintains a "hair trigger alert" posture despite past attempts at reform, with former officials noting that presidents are often the least informed participants, the "black book" options may be watered down, and a decapitation strike could force military rule in Washington D.C., while the Single Integrated Operational Plan previously included plans to kill 600 million people.