Interview
When the levy doesn’t break: a trade-war world adjusts
- The global political landscape is shifting with hard-right parties in Europe securing roughly 24% of the weighted vote and 23% of parliamentary seats, though they hold only 14% of governing party seats, with only two heads of government from these parties (Italy and Hungary) amidst a "firewall" strategy by mainstream coalitions to exclude them from power.
- Donald Trump's protectionist policies are accelerating faster than anticipated, with 25 tariffs on steel and aluminium already effective as of March 12, while a subsequent deadline for tariffs on Canada and Mexico is set for April 2, with further tariffs either pending or potentially deferred.
- The administration's objective remains unclear, though Trump views trade deficits as robbery and appears committed to tariffs as both a belief and a negotiation tactic, potentially leading to a spiral of retaliation that could shock the US economy and hurt export-oriented nations like Canada, Mexico, and Europe.
- Economic consequences may include rising consumer prices, reduced purchasing power for nearly 300 million Americans, compressed importer margins, and a potential economic slowdown, contrasting with hopes that tax cut extensions or deregulation would offset these downsides.
- Market indicators reflect declining investor confidence, with the S&P 500 falling approximately 9% from its mid-February peak, suggesting investors no longer view the administration as a trustworthy steward of the economy or believe the stock market will serve as a check on trade policies.
- Cultural analyses suggest that expectations surrounding significant first and last words are often unrealistic; while historical and modern societies attach profound meaning to these utterances, contemporary final words are frequently lost due to prolonged end-of-life verbal attrition, making clear last words an exception rather than the rule.