Interview
Where are the aliens? | Anders Sandberg
- Intelligent life could colonize the universe, though the probability of life emerging on an Earth-like planet varies by roughly 100 orders of magnitude due to uncertainties between natural spontaneous generation and thermodynamic miracles.
- Evolution from simple life to complex intelligence is uncertain, with optimistic literature suggesting an 8% chance humanity is alone in the visible universe and a 20-30% chance of being alone in the Milky Way.
- The lack of observed nearby aliens significantly updates the probability of life emerging and evolving to intelligence by several orders of magnitude, while the rate of star formation remains largely unchanged.
- Civilizations may have lifespans ranging from a few decades to 10 billion years, representing seven orders of magnitude of uncertainty, with extinction risks from pandemics estimated to kill up to one billion to six billion people but extremely unlikely to eliminate all humans.
- Risks from biolab accidents depend heavily on model accuracy, where flawed analysis could result in risks much higher than predicted, similar to the safety profile of the Large Hadron Collider where significant risk increases if safety analysis is even slightly flawed.
- Technology will likely be developed regardless of bans, as historical attempts to prohibit printing or travel have failed, leading to a preference for differential technology development that prioritizes safeguards and fixes over prohibition.
- Future computation can be optimized by estivating until the background radiation cools to 10^-29 Kelvin in approximately 1.5 trillion years, enabling civilizations to perform as much computation as the entire observable universe could today.
- Maintaining an estivating civilization requires hidden infrastructure and caretakers to prevent resource loss or invasion, while the Berserker hypothesis of self-replicating killing machines is considered less than 1% probable due to ecological instability.
- Universal colonization is theoretically feasible using planetary mass like Mercury to launch probes at 90% light speed, yet galaxy expansion will eventually render currently visible galaxies unreachable as they recede faster than light.
- As civilizations spread, causal contact will be severed between different regions, necessitating pre-established coordination and ground rules since real-time communication will become impossible.
- Humanity must establish coordination processes and safety measures over the next few years to centuries while still on a single planet to ensure future openness and safety.