Interview
Whether we're winning or losing against COVID-19 | Marc Lipsitch (2020)
- The October London event faces a potential cancellation, while the organizers of eagX Virtual anticipate a price point of 40 will suffice to cover costs and sustain operations.
- Infection fatality rates are projected to remain below 1.5%, most likely under 1%, yet stay above 0.2% and probably above 0.4%.
- With current infection rates between 5% and 10%, it is probable that more than 10% of the US population will have been infected by the time a vaccine or treatment becomes available.
- Nearly the entire population is expected to develop an antibody response and some level of immunity against the virus given sufficient time.
- Transmission control strategies will shift from stopping spread entirely to allowing slow transmission to protect vulnerable groups with vaccines, as total transmission blockage is deemed impossible.
- Outdoor transmission is predicted to be significantly less likely than indoor transmission, though the former remains possible.
- Most countries are expected to transition toward less restrictive policies as public fatigue sets in.
- Future pandemics are anticipated to be less frequent but more common than catastrophic events, with responses likely mirroring current approaches or resulting in severe outcomes.
- Human challenge trials are expected to become increasingly likely and potentially necessary if low disease incidence prevents rapid phase three trials, though they should not be the primary licensing method.
- Surveillance testing infrastructure requires more reliable random sampling methods and robust techniques for handling limited, changing, and messy data, such as now-casting and back-calculation.
- Epidemiology is expected to standardize the integration of big data, including movement and genomic sequences, alongside a strategic focus on training for cutting-edge methods.
- The current grant funding system is considered too slow for rapidly evolving infectious disease challenges, necessitating shortened cycles to support timely innovation.
- Retaining innovative personnel will require increased funding, with a healthy, trained community capable of working on diverse problems during peacetime viewed as fundamental for future pandemic responses.