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Which jobs put you in the best long-term position? | The 80,000 Hours career guide (2023 edition)

80,000 Hours
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  • Most individuals are expected to reach peak productivity in their 40s, with specific fields showing earlier peaks around age 30 (theoretical physics, poetry, mathematics), 40 (psychology, chemistry), or 50 (novel writing, history, philosophy), while expert-level performance generally requires 10 to 30 years of focused practice.
  • Financial security planning recommends a runway of at least six months, with 12 to 18 months recommended for the flexibility to execute major career changes, and high-interest debt should be prioritized before donating above 1% annually or taking significant pay cuts.
  • The labor market is projected to undergo significant shifts over the next 10 years due to AI, particularly machine learning, which is expected to impact jobs between the 70th and 99th income percentiles, including chemical engineers, optometrists, and dispatchers, while roles requiring social intelligence and complex decision-making may remain more resilient.
  • Future career strategies should prioritize acquiring "career capital"—defined as skills, credentials, and connections that enhance future impact—through high-intensity practice and roles in rapidly growing organizations, where the private sector is viewed as offering superior feedback loops and higher pay for runway accumulation.
  • Educational pathways such as economics and machine learning PhDs are expected to provide robust backup options with high earning potential (often exceeding $100,000 annually for ML skills) and applicability to pressing global issues, whereas fields like history or philosophy are considered more competitive with fewer transferable skills.
  • Early career graduates are expected to face significant challenges regarding practical skills like running meetings or reading financial statements, necessitating entry into high-performing, high-integrity teams where mentorship is available to accelerate learning and build character.
  • Policy and government careers are expected to offer high-impact opportunities with entry routes through political campaigns, executive branch fellowships, or think tank roles, though these paths involve high risks regarding job security and cultural fit.
  • AI systems are predicted to eventually surpass human capabilities in most jobs, making it critical for individuals to learn how to use AI to augment productivity and focus on hard-to-automate skills such as creativity, problem-solving, and relationship building.
  • Organizations are expected to vary in their utility for career development, with large entities offering strong credentials and mentorship but complex bureaucracy, while smaller organizations and startups provide broader skill sets and faster responsibility growth, albeit with higher failure rates.
  • Specific technical fields like software engineering, data science, and information security are expected to remain in high demand with high salaries, with bootcamps potentially transitioning individuals from zero experience to employment within 6 to 12 months.
  • Long-term career trajectories are expected to shift toward management as a required skill, with success in large organizations increasingly dependent on navigating politics and bureaucracy.
  • Uncertainty regarding economic and labor market conditions is expected to be extremely high beyond the 5 to 10 year horizon, with some experts speculating that AI could render most current job functions obsolete eventually.