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Who owns the Moon?
- Returning to the Moon is anticipated to be driven by wealthy tourism, geopolitical competition (specifically between the US and China), and the potential for resource extraction, with NASA targeting a 2024 crewed landing at the Lunar South Pole where ice has been discovered.
- Launch costs have decreased by a factor of 40 in real terms from nearly $62,000 per kilo in 1981 to under $1,500 per kilo last year, potentially reducing reliance on massive national budgets, though the feasibility of extracting platinum group minerals remains uncertain without localized, rich deposits.
- The Moon is viewed as a proving ground for Mars missions, with dozens of lunar missions planned over the next 20 years, including crews and potentially the first woman to land, though the first crewed landing date could be 2024.
- The Outer Space Treaty prohibits sovereignty claims over the Moon itself, leaving resource ownership open to interpretation, with the US likely rejecting new treaties modeled on the law of the sea due to a "finders keepers" philosophy.
- The creation of a new international legal framework is deemed necessary but faces significant challenges in reaching consensus due to conflicting national interests and the likelihood of political disputes, such as those from the South China Sea, manifesting on the Moon.
- Political and legal conflicts regarding ownership and mining rights are expected to escalate significantly, potentially mirroring Earth's tensions with higher stakes than the 1960s space race, with the full extent of the "political mess" only emerging after the first crater is mined or a hotel is built.
- Commercial claims of Moon ownership exist, with one individual reporting millions in revenue from sales at $25 an acre, though the use of lunar dust for nuclear fusion is considered an unserious proposition compared to the potential for helium-3 mining.