Interview, Fireside Chat
Who’s really running Iran? | The Economist
- The Iranian system is currently fighting an existential war for survival, anticipating conflict following the unraveling of last summer's 12-day ceasefire agreement.
- U.S. and Israeli "decapitation strategies" successfully eliminated Iran's supreme leader and three layers of military command and leadership.
- Successors filling key decision-making roles are known quantities rather than new figures emerging from the bureaucracy, maintaining a consensus-based structure for key votes.
- In June, 12 out of 13 members of the Supreme National Security Council voted in favor of signing the new MOU.
- The primary unknown in the current equation is the thinking, role, and severe health status of Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
- Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen publicly since recovering from injuries sustained on February 28th and has suffered the loss of close family members.
- Western officials cannot assume that removing "hardliners" will automatically result in the rise of "pragmatists," as ideological labels in Iranian politics are fluid and oversimplified.
- Ali Larijani, previously viewed as a pragmatic negotiator and hardline conservative, was killed; his death was surprising given his role as an interlocutor.
- Iranian factions (reformists, moderates, pragmatists, conservatives, neoconservatives) share a unified goal of regime security despite tactical policy differences.
- Iran's regional actions are driven by a rational national security strategy of "forward defense" based on a perception of being ringed by enemies, not by irrational hatred of the West.
- The current balance of influence within the regime has shifted toward the IRGC (Revolutionary Guards), though the system may rebalance toward a consensus model once active fighting ceases.
- Unlike the previous Supreme Leader, who held the position for 40 years and maintained a massive patronage network to ensure consensus, Mojtaba lacks equivalent status and personality traits.
- It remains uncertain how Mojtaba Khamenei will replicate his father's ability to balance the system and forge solutions without a comparable network of patronage over judicial and military appointments.