Fireside Chat, Panel, Interview, Conference Presentation
Why America is stepping away from the institutions it built | The Economist
- The post-WWII institutional order is being dismantled primarily by U.S. secession from the system rather than external pressures like China's rise, driven by a perception that American elites previously exploited the nation through values misaligned with ordinary citizens.
- A bipartisan lack of appetite for large-scale foreign entanglements exists, with six in ten Americans believing the global trading system has not benefited the U.S., leading both parties to prioritize internal economic strengthening, tariffs, and a retreat from new trade deals.
- The shift toward a muscular, transactional foreign policy is viewed as a lasting trend supported by a popular mandate, making a return to the pre-2010 status quo unlikely regardless of the outcome of the next presidential election.
- Three potential future scenarios are identified: successful U.S. renegotiation establishing transactional primacy where Europe becomes subordinate; a fizzle-out where American values reassert themselves despite a harder-to-manage world; or a total systemic collapse triggering uncontrollable arms races, including nuclear conflicts.
- While recent withdrawals from UN committees are noted as shocking, their overall impact remains uncertain, and the limits of reshaping the world through force have been demonstrated by events in Iran, suggesting a cautious approach to using American power.
- The post-Soviet era is characterized as a period of "hypertrophy" in American ambition where rising costs and hubris in Afghanistan and Iraq contrasted with China's thriving growth, prompting a hope among scholars for a new settlement where values matter but the approach is more transactional.
- The decline of the post-war order is characterized as a tragedy by some who view it as having worked for America, while others argue the order's costs became unsustainable as allies free-ripped, necessitating the current shift in values.