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Why Britain's election won't end the political chaos
- Britain's politics are projected to remain deeply divided with no return to the political centre, creating a future of alternating right-wing and left-wing governments without a clear end to political chaos.
- Boris Johnson is predicted to lead a Conservative party that has shifted significantly to the right within three years, and a solid Tory victory is viewed as necessary to prevent a second Brexit referendum.
- A Labour-led government is expected to implement radical, anti-market economic policies that would traumatize corporations and trigger significant foreign capital flight, causing domestic and foreign exchange instability.
- If neither major party secures a working majority, the loss of the centre ground will make forming parliamentary alliances extremely difficult, though a coalition of Labour, the Scottish Nationalists, and the Liberal Democrats is considered probable.
- A trade agreement with the European Union by the end of next year is deemed unlikely due to the volume of necessary work, raising the risk of a highly disruptive no-deal Brexit.
- The negotiated EU deal establishing an Irish Sea border is seen as a catalyst for constitutional turmoil, potentially dragging Northern Ireland into the Irish Republic's orbit and increasing the long-term likelihood of Irish unification.
- Support for Scottish independence is forecast to rise as the "Shafted Scotland" narrative gains traction, with the SNP likely to leverage Brexit as grounds for a new independence vote and pressure to break up the UK intensifying.
- Economists agree Brexit will inflict a significant economic hit, meaning insufficient growth will prevent increased public service spending, and neither party is expected to alter this trajectory.
- The breakdown of the United Kingdom is assessed as the closest it has ever been, with the failure of both major parties' solutions to address market realities or unite the electorate guaranteeing continued instability.