Why does political violence seem to be getting worse in America? | The Economist

The Incident and Immediate Response

• A gunman, identified as 31-year-old Cole Thomas Allen of Torrance, California, attempted to reach President Trump and other officials at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.
• The shooter fired shots before being tackled by police at a security checkpoint, preventing entry to the ballroom where the President and journalists were seated.
• All attendees dove for cover; the event was subsequently halted by the active threat.
• Allen was apprehended and is scheduled to face federal charges in court.
• President Trump later praised the Secret Service for their speed and effectiveness in neutralizing the threat during a press conference.
• The incident evoked historical parallels to the 1981 assassination attempt on President Ronald Reagan at the same Hilton Hotel location.

Security Protocols and Criticism

• The gunman had posted a manifesto prior to the event boasting about the lax security at the venue.
• Access to the lobby required only a ticket, a vulnerability the shooter exploited to enter the premises.
• Questions are already being raised regarding the adequacy of Secret Service protocols and adherence to standard security measures.
• An agent or officer was reported injured during the line of duty while responding to the attack.
• Defenders of the Secret Service argue that protecting the President is an "impossible standard" given the US population of 350 million and the estimated half-billion civilian-owned guns.
• President Trump leveraged the incident to advocate for the construction of a new, larger ballroom at the White House, claiming it would be drone-proof and feature bulletproof glass.

Political Violence Trends and Public Perception

• The event marks the third probable attempt on Donald Trump's life; additional foiled plots have been reported over the past year.
• Recent high-profile incidents include the assassinations of commentator Charlie Kirk and Minnesota state lawmaker Melissa Hortman.
• Polling indicates that 85% of Americans believe political violence is increasing in the country.
• Despite these perceptions, historical data suggests political violence is currently lower than the levels seen during the 1960s and 1970s.
• The perceived rise in violence is attributed to a media phenomenon where attacks are instantly broadcast to millions, making the threat feel more immediate.
• While 80% of Americans deem political violence unacceptable, a minority believe violence could be justified in specific circumstances, though few support presidential assassination.

Electoral and Governance Implications

• Experts do not anticipate a lasting change in President Trump's approval ratings, which remain low largely due to the conflict in Iran.
• A short-term boost in popularity is expected among "shy Republicans" due to a reduction in partisan non-response bias during polling.
• Sustained approval ratings remain fundamentally tied to economic perceptions rather than security incidents.
• The repeated attempts underscore the tension between the necessity of presidential accessibility and the risks of leaving the White House.
• If the threat of violence escalates, there is a risk that the US system of government could drift toward a "remote, out of touch" model where the President rarely interacts with the public.
• Commentators warn against framing these events as evidence that American democracy is in "existential peril," urging careful rhetorical use of such terms.