Why Israel is closely watching the Iran protests

Current Situation in Iran

• Protests have intensified following a 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June, with reports of hundreds of fatalities due to violent suppression by Iranian authorities.
• The unrest is driven by domestic economic instability and a lack of democracy, potentially shattering the "barrier of fear" that previously prevented mass protests.
• The future of the Iranian regime is described as highly uncertain and closely monitored by the Israeli leadership.

Risks of Iranian Retaliation

• Rallying Effect: The regime may launch an external strike to divert attention from internal collapse and rally support around the government.
• Preemptive Strikes: Iran fears a new Israeli attempt to destroy remaining missile launchers and nuclear components, prompting potential preemptive action.
• Restoring Deterrence: Following a June conflict where Iran fired over 500 missiles without inflicting a serious blow on Israel, the regime seeks to restore military pride and deterrence.
• Miscalculation Risks: Concerns exist that Iranian leadership may misinterpret US actions; specifically, if President Trump attacks Iran for suppressing protesters, Iran may retaliate against US allies in the region, such as Israel.

Israeli Strategic Calculus and Timing

• Defensive Posture: Despite US backing for potential strikes (including threats from President Trump to dismantle Iran's rebuilt programs), Israel is currently unprepared for immediate large-scale attacks as it replenishes missile defense interceptors.
• Policy Shift: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has adopted a low-profile approach, avoiding threats of interference and suggesting that "revolutions happen best from within," to prevent Iranian miscalculation.
• Strategic Patience: The Israeli government prefers allowing internal regime change or instability to play out before initiating further warfare, despite retaining long-term objectives to destroy Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities.

Potential Long-Term Gains for Israel

• Weapon Security: Instability or anarchy in Iran poses a critical risk regarding the security of ballistic missiles and the nuclear program, creating assets for potential negotiation.
• Proxy Network Erosion: As Iran focuses on internal order and economic recovery, it will lack the financial resources and attention to maintain its regional proxy network.
• Geopolitical Realignment: There is a long-term prospect of restoring the pre-1979 alliance between the two nations, ending with the potential for a future relationship where Israel sources oil and technology from a post-revolutionary Iran.