Interview
Why prior generations missed some of the biggest priorities of all | Tom Moynihan (2021)
- Core Thesis: Prior to the 18th century, a dominant intellectual framework known as the "Principle of Plenitude" prevented most thinkers from conceiving of human extinction as a permanent, natural event.
- Principle of Plenitude Definition: This worldview posits that "whatever can happen will happen," often interpreted as "all that is possible is currently happening" or that all possibilities recur eternally.
- Implication of Eternal Return: Under this logic, if humanity disappears, it must inevitably reappear at some point in the infinite future; therefore, species were viewed as imperishable and value as "invariable" or globally conserved.
- Logical Barrier: Believing in non-recurrent extinction requires a modern definition of logical possibility (coherence independent of temporal realization), a concept only developed in the late medieval era by theologians attempting to preserve God's omnipotence.
- Teleology: Pre-scientific worldviews were heavily teleological, assuming the universe had an inherent drive to maximize complexity and life, making "empty" states of non-existence seem unnatural.
- Ancient Examples:
- Aristotle: Argued that any species existing now must be "absolutely imperishable" because if extinction were possible, it would have already occurred.
- Plato: Implied that no "form" remains unmanifested; all potentialities are realized in the cosmos.
- Lucretius: Despite being a materialist, argued that "it is impossible for anything to return to nothing" and that other inhabited worlds must exist elsewhere.
- Descartes: Claimed that due to plenitude, no false hypothesis could exist because every possible truth eventually manifests.
- Consequences of Plenitude:
- History was viewed as cyclical, with civilizations and value states repeating infinitely.
- Progress was seen as futile on a macro scale; one could not improve the world beyond a pre-existing divine maximum.
- Fossilized animals were initially dismissed as "minerals acting like animals" or species hiding in unexplored depths rather than extinct.
- Extraterrestrial life was assumed to be human-like and ubiquitous, including on other planets, within a hollow Earth, or deep underground.
- Breakdown of the Worldview:
- Empirical Contradictions: The discovery of the asteroid belt (a "ruined" planet), the barren Moon, and vast epochs of dead rock before life challenged the idea of a fully populated, value-filled cosmos.
- Paleontology: Georges Cuvier (early 19th century) provided comparative anatomical proof that species like mammoths and dinosaurs had gone extinct and would not return.
- Geology: Uniformitarianism initially delayed extinction theory by assuming the past operated exactly as the present, but eventually led to the realization that the Earth had a long, lifeless history.
- Evolution: Darwin's theory eventually allowed for mass extinction via random catastrophe rather than just "descent with modification" or divine will, though the "eclipse of Darwinism" temporarily reintroduced fatalistic, cyclical views of species aging.
- First Fictional Depictions: Mary Shelley's The Last Man (1826) is identified as the first novel-length treatment of human extinction via pandemic, emphasizing the continuation of the biosphere without humanity and the lack of cosmic significance to the event.
- Modern Obstructions:
- Parsimony and Simplicity: Aesthetic preferences for simple, reversible, or cyclic models (e.g., Newtonian physics, steady-state cosmology) delayed the acceptance of mass extinctions and the 1980 Alvarez impact hypothesis.
- Uniformitarianism: The dogma that "the present is the key to the past" led scientists like Charles Lyell to deny mass extinctions and even predict the future resurrection of extinct species like ichthyosaurs.
- Copernicanism: The assumption that humanity is "typical" in the universe (space, time, scale) continues to bias estimates of future habitability and the likelihood of re-evolving intelligence.
- Probability and Contingency:
- The concept of probability was largely absent in pre-18th-century thought; "unthought" events were assumed impossible.
- Early probability calculations (e.g., cometary impacts in the 1770s) were often misinterpreted as precise recurrences rather than statistical frequencies.
- The shift from frequentist to subjective (Bayesian) probability was necessary to assess unique, unprecedented existential risks like nuclear war.
- Utopia vs. Uchronia:
- Ancient "utopias" were spatial (existing elsewhere concurrently), whereas "uchronia" (future time) emerged only when the idea of material progress and linear time took hold (c. 1770s).
- The "Psychozoic Age" (early 20th century) envisioned human intelligence as the primary driver of planetary change, contrasting with the previous view of blind natural forces.
- Moral Progress and "Meliorism":
- The book argues for a distinction between "progress is inevitable" (optimism) and "progress is possible" (meliorism), highlighting the fragility of value.
- Intergenerational ethics shifted from kinship-based partiality (caring for one's own lineage) to an impartial view (Sidgwick, Edgeworth, 1870s) that values the indefinite future as a "long line of waves" of joy.
- Future Research Directions:
- Applying concepts from dynamical systems, chaos theory, and path dependence to sociology and civilization studies to better model contingencies.
- Investigating the "Needham Question" (why the scientific revolution occurred in Europe and not China) to understand civilizational lock-ins.
- Mapping cultural convergence vs. divergence to assess the risk of permanent collapse after a catastrophe.
- Career Advice for Intellectual Historians:
- The field is high-risk and competitive within academia but offers high "information value" for effective altruism by revealing hidden background assumptions.
- Funding is increasingly available through existential risk initiatives (e.g., Future of Humanity Institute, Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative).
- Recommended path: Study a quantitative adjacent field (e.g., economics) for transferable skills before specializing in history, or seek direct philanthropic funding for specific research topics.
- Author's Reflections:
- Moynihan acknowledges the risk of Eurocentrism in his work and plans to expand into non-Western traditions (e.g., Chinese Moism, Mesoamerican nihilism).
- He notes a tension in his previous work regarding whether value is "created" by humans or "discovered," leaning toward the latter (Sidgwickian impartial view).
- He identifies the "pre-formation" theory (humunculi in sperm) as a prime example of how deeply embedded biological misconceptions were.
- Forward-Looking Statement: Moynihan suggests the current generation is the first to possess the combination of insights (infinite future, contingency, impartial value) to intentionally shape the far future, marking a potential "hinge of history."