Interview
Why Putin invaded Ukraine & how to prevent disaster | Samuel Charap (2022)
- The geopolitical landscape may enter a new era characterized by heightened great power tensions, bullying of smaller nations by larger neighbors, and increased risks of global escalation involving additional countries or weapons of mass destruction.
- Russia's decision to initiate conflict was driven by a "now or never" perception among the elite regarding trends deteriorating since 2020–2021, following earlier signs of intent to alter the status quo in 2017.
- While a short-term Russian military defeat or regime change is considered unlikely, the war risks destabilizing Putin's legitimacy and creating political instability in Russia over the medium term, where a successor may be a hardliner rather than more amenable to the West.
- Sanctions are projected to cause significant economic dislocation within Russia over the next six, nine, or twelve months, with stability in the Russian economy appearing highly uncertain over a three-to-twelve-month horizon.
- A Russia-imposed political order in Ukraine is expected to be unstable within three months, and the likelihood of a Ukrainian victory is viewed as unlikely to increase as the conflict drags on for months or years, prolonging Ukrainian suffering.
- Escalation risks are elevated if the conflict is perceived as existential, if NATO intervention is anticipated by Russia, or if governments attempt to manage public outrage through increasingly escalatory measures; non-strategic nuclear use could be the entry point for Russia-NATO conflict.
- Nuclear escalation to the level of major exchange is viewed as more probable than a month ago, though confinement to Ukraine reduces the risk given Russia's vast undeployed conventional capabilities.
- Future expansion of NATO to include Sweden or Finland is deemed a mistake due to the genuine potential to spark further escalation, even if Russia is not currently positioned to seek a war with NATO.
- Western strategic objectives aimed at Russia's defeat were never acceptable to Moscow, and the failure to establish a sustainable alternative after 2017 is characterized as a miscalculation that contributed to the current trajectory.