Why Russia is building its own version of Starlink | The Economist

Russian Satellite & Drone Capabilities

• Russia is developing a Starlink-equivalent satellite network, having launched dozens of satellites that are currently non-functional.
• Russian officials project a fully operational system within a year, which would enable precise targeting of all assets in Ukraine.
• Ukraine has not yet utilized Starlink to strike targets inside Russian territory because Elon Musk has refused to authorize such operations.
• Ukraine's first "mothership" FPV drone attack on Kyiv occurred two weeks prior to the discussion, utilizing a large drone to deploy smaller, harder-to-intercept units.
• Russia historically adapts Ukrainian technology into cost-effective, mass-producible weapons within three to six months of initial deployment.
• Russian "safari tactics" involve deploying FPV drones near front-line cities to target civilian vehicles, aiming to force population displacement through terror.

Frontline Dynamics and Russian Casualties

• Despite Ukrainian claims of holding the line, net territorial gains for Ukraine this year total approximately 100 square kilometers, roughly the size of Paris within its ring road.
• The conflict is characterized as a "dynamic equilibrium" rather than a total stalemate, with both sides engaging in active tactical maneuvers.
• Russia's monthly casualty toll is estimated at 40,000, a figure exceeding Soviet Union losses in a decade of the Afghanistan War.
• Cumulative Russian losses for the entire war reportedly surpass total US casualties during World War II.
• Vladimir Putin maintains a war-of-attrition strategy, relying on the ability to recruit troops despite recruitment numbers lagging behind kill counts.
• Putin possesses the capacity to implement secret mobilization rather than public announcements if necessary.

Peace Initiatives and Political Pressure

• Recent meetings between Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, and Ukrainian officials were viewed positively but did not generate immediate optimism for a breakthrough peace deal.
• Trump's recent social media posts about an "energy ceasefire" were met with skepticism in Kyiv, with few observers taking the proposal seriously.
• Increased diplomatic talk regarding negotiations is anticipated following the Russian Duma elections and leading up to the US midterms to bolster Trump's diplomatic image.
• Specific discussion has arisen regarding a mutual agreement to stop attacks on energy infrastructure, driven by Trump's desire to halt Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.
• Experts predict no significant peace progress until after winter, as Putin is currently focused on inflicting maximum damage via jet drones and ballistic missiles before that season.
• Putin's strategic comfort is attributed to his perceived advantage in men, materiel, and financial resources relative to current Ukrainian constraints.