Presentation, Other
Will covid kill globalisation?
- Globalization is expected to accelerate a retreat, moving toward a fractured, regionalized, and "messier" world characterized by a mix of counter-trends such as nationalization, localization, and de-globalization, with no return to the 20–30 years of unfettered global trade and sourcing from China.
- Supply chain models are shifting toward shorter, localized networks driven by the on-demand economy and social commerce, while the decoupling of Chinese and American technology is projected to create two distinct, less innovative technological worlds.
- Emerging countries face risks of being left behind in a post-industrial economy, potentially preventing their rise to middle-income status due to the unraveling of globalization, regardless of when the pandemic is controlled.
- Economic nationalism policies aimed at reshoring manufacturing are anticipated to fail in returning jobs, as domestic factories will likely rely on higher automation levels than those previously in China.
- Market consolidation is expected to continue, with major digital companies and Amazon-like direct delivery models growing larger, while the top 10% of companies in hit sectors adopt winning, innovative business models that allow them to thrive during crises.
- The world remains too integrated for a full unwinding of globalization, though the pandemic will deepen systemic cracks, prompting leaders to pursue interdependence paired with resilience rather than ineffective isolationist solutions.