Interview, Fireside Chat
Will humans still fight in future wars?
- Core Strategic Shift: Torsten Reil, co-founder of European defense startup Helsing, asserts that future battlefields will become "no-go zones" for humans within a few years, making the deployment of personnel unethical and necessitating autonomous human-controlled systems to counter enemy swarms.
- Threat Assessment: Reil warns that Russia has successfully adapted its strategy by focusing on scaling small numbers of unmanned and teleoperated systems, a lesson he notes is already being absorbed by China.
- Capability Gap: While acknowledging that NATO and European forces still possess formidable conventional systems, Reil predicts they will be overmatched by large autonomous swarms unless Europe accelerates its own development of counter-swarm technologies.
- Industry Perception: The stigma previously associated with the defense sector (comparable to tobacco or ESG concerns) is considered by Reil to be a closed chapter, driven by both economic necessity in struggling industries like automotive and a renewed conviction regarding European sovereignty.
- European Sovereignty: Reil highlights that Europe's manufacturing capabilities in key areas are stronger than those of the US, providing a powerful foundation for rapid defense innovation despite lingering cultural prejudices.
- Political Volatility: Reil acknowledges the rising influence of populist and far-right parties in France, Germany, and the UK, noting that the definition of "liberal democracy" is currently in flux and must be navigated by defense contractors regardless of ideological shifts.
- German Defense Investment: Germany is significantly expanding its defense budget from €52 billion to €153 billion annually, creating a €100 billion surplus that effectively represents a tenfold increase in spending power for new equipment rather than a simple threefold increase.
- Investment Focus: A substantial portion of the increased German defense spending is directed toward "new types of defense systems," specifically autonomous mass deployments, with major contracts already being awarded at a high pace.
- Regional Disparities: While Germany, Scandinavia, and Poland are investing heavily in defense, other nations face fiscal constraints that require difficult trade-offs, including increasing debt, reallocating budget resources, or cutting legacy programs.
- Future Requirements: The necessity for Europe to build its own autonomous systems is framed not as a dystopian choice but as an imperative to ensure machines fight machines, avoiding human casualties in upcoming conflicts.