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Will the Iranian regime collapse? | The Economist
- The conflict is projected to persist for a few days to weeks, with the stated goal of dismantling Iran's security apparatus remaining unachieved despite the death of Khamenei.
- Senior Iranian leadership faces anticipated further assassination attempts, including members of the line of succession, the defense minister, and the interior minister.
- President Trump may reverse course and pursue a deal with the Iranian regime, which would require abandoning promises of a "prosperous, glorious future" and regime change.
- Israel remains focused on degrading Iran's ballistic missile stockpile, reporting that half of its launches have been intercepted, while command and control structures are described as severely degraded and firing chaotically.
- Tensions are expected to rise between Israel's desire for lasting damage and potential US hesitation regarding a campaign extending beyond several weeks.
- US strikes on the Atomic Energy Agency and other facilities have not altered the status of highly enriched uranium, and Iran has not entered a zone of immunity regarding nuclear operations.
- Missile stockpile gaps may emerge for Israeli and Gulf state defenders if hostilities extend beyond one week, with both sides likely considering conservation measures after two weeks of conflict.
- A mass casualty event involving significantly higher death tolls is considered inevitable, and the regime remains capable of suppressing mass protests by killing 10,000 to 20,000 people.
- De-escalation via a nuclear deal is deemed unlikely under current Revolutionary Guard leadership, while a prolonged campaign leading to regime collapse could trigger unpredictable chain of events.
- An outcome allowing for de-escalation is estimated to be several days away, contingent upon the eventual crumbling of the Iranian regime.