Interview
Will Trump invade Greenland?
- Economic, political, and diplomatic pressure, including "arm twisting," are anticipated as the primary US approach to Greenland, with the actual use of force or assault considered significantly less likely despite some analysts considering extreme scenarios plausible.
- Concerns exist regarding the possibility of a unilateral American annexation of Greenland by declaration without military involvement, driven by motivations related to natural resources requiring difficult mining and a desire for territorial expansion.
- The Danish and European capacity to defend Greenland against China and Russia is predicted to be insufficient, particularly over the next 10 years, creating a critical vulnerability.
- The European response is expected to feature unprecedented rhetoric regarding "blackmail, intimidation, and threats" directed at the US, signaling a severe escalation in the situation.
- The dispute is viewed as potentially existential for NATO, with predictions that an American action against an ally like Denmark would severely erode faith in Article 5 and make other allies hesitant to believe the US would intervene in future conflicts.
- While the alliance is not expected to dissolve because it is too complex to be undone by one individual, a subset of US advisers believes that a NATO fragmentation caused by the crisis could be viewed favorably by the Trump administration.
- Acting on threats to invade Greenland is characterized as "lunacy" due to the profound consequences the US would face, including trade retaliation, impacts on tech companies, and loss of access to European bases, suggesting the US is not currently willing to execute such actions.
- European leaders are projected to adopt a "cautious approach" that involves actively "hitting back" and speaking out more than in the past, rather than remaining supine.
- Even if the immediate issue is resolved, a strategic shift is required wherein Europe moves rapidly toward a vision of defense capable of operating with significantly less US involvement to address the serious problems left by a potential American withdrawal.
- Without US participation, Europe faces a "very very serious problem" that would likely take years to resolve and fill the security gaps left behind.