Women and the Saudi revolution

Saudi Arabia, ruled as an absolute monarchy by the Al Saud family under an extreme interpretation of Islam, is undergoing rapid social reforms led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).

Significant recent policy shifts include lifting the ban on women driving, opening cinemas for the first time in decades, and hosting public music festivals in Riyadh.

The reforms aim to diversify the economy, which currently relies on oil for over 80% of government revenue, by increasing female labor participation.

• Saudi women account for 60% of university graduates, yet labor participation remains low at 20% compared to 80% for men.
• Historically, strict social conventions and a lack of public transport forced many women to rely on hired drivers, a barrier removed by the driving ban lift.

Despite social liberalization, the political environment has become more repressive under MBS's centralized authority.

• Several women's rights campaigners have been arrested and imprisoned despite their role in advocating for reforms.
• Political dissent has been suppressed; fewer than ten individuals were willing to speak on camera about criticism of the regime during recent reporting.
• The administration has seen a sharp rise in executions, with over 60 carried out in the current year alone.

The sustainability of MBS's "top-down" modernization drive faces significant structural and political risks.

• Economic necessity is driving the push for female employment to end reliance on wasteful public sector jobs reserved for men and reduce generous subsidies.
• The Crown Prince faces opposition from religious puritans who disapprove of social changes and rival princes resenting his power consolidation.
• Rumors of potential coups persist due to the concentration of power in the royal family.

Demographic and generational factors present both an opportunity for stability and a risk of backlash.

• Approximately 70% of the Saudi population is under 30; many young Saudis have returned from international scholarships with new cultural ideas they wish to implement.
• Experts warn that if the aspirations of this young generation are not met, their patience could lead to a violent backlash.
• While MBS enjoys high popularity among youth, there is no indication he will implement democratic reforms to create a long-term, broad-based support system.

The global community has a vested interest in the success of these reforms, as a moderate, productive Saudi Arabia could promote regional stability and a more moderate interpretation of Islam worldwide.