Panel, Conference Presentation
Women Leaders’ Summit: Lunch Plenary | Navigating Challenges in an Uncertain World
Milken InstituteMichael DeAddio, Tina Fordham, Liew Tzu Mi, Elena Okorochenko, Tracey Woon, Mike D'Addio
- Rapid acceleration is anticipated across technology, social media, data, politics, anti-globalization, populism, and disruption, with no sector immune to these shifts.
- Data utilization is expected to evolve into advanced predictive capabilities, creating a competitive landscape where the winner aggregates traditional and alternative data to become the single source for analytics and insights.
- Emerging markets like India and China are shifting adoption curves from "mobile first" to "mobile only," a transition that influences broader business ecosystems and technology strategies.
- S&P Global aims to build platforms for SMEs to facilitate best practice exchange, supplier discovery, and funding, following a pilot in its Indian subsidiary, while integrating ESG assessments into ratings and daily operations to support a "profit plus impact" business model.
- Between 50 to 75 million jobs globally, representing 2% of the workforce, are projected to be at risk over the medium to long term due to disruptive technology, with Asia facing 30 to 50 million of these losses, though jobs are expected to transform rather than disappear entirely.
- Artificial intelligence is not expected to reach super-intelligence levels within the current working lifetime, but processor-type roles will likely vanish, requiring banks to redefine themselves as advisors in the digitized age.
- The political risk environment has shifted from anticipating emerging market events to forecasting population-driven volatility in developed markets, driven by factors such as automation, deglobalization, drought, and the influence of unpredictable leadership and social media.
- Current market conditions present high valuations and near-record low volatility that resemble a late-cycle environment, though fundamentals like inflation and growth in developed markets have not yet confirmed this trend, predicting potential periods of low returns.
- Investors are advised to move beyond passive "desktop investing" toward offensive strategies involving direct engagement with companies resilient to recession, leveraging long-term horizons and diverse financing options including loans, bonds, and equities.
- China is viewed as a complex, high-yielding long-term opportunity despite credit bubble and exchange rate risks, with its government bond market expected to become mainstream and indexed despite currently near-zero foreign ownership.
- Significant financial risks loom for Asia-Pacific borrowers over the next five years, including $1 trillion in USD-denominated debt coming up for refinancing, potential interest rate hikes, and foreign exchange costs, compounded by stretched property prices and high household leverage in major cities.
- China's total debt burden is estimated at 260% to 270% of GDP, with 160% attributed to corporate borrowing, creating a scenario where a crisis in China could have severe repercussions for the wider Asia-Pacific region given its increased dependency.
- Global capital expenditure is expected to rise by 5.5%, signaling sustainable growth, though investments in competing sectors like auto, technology, and retail face potential negative outcomes.
- Diversity and inclusion efforts are critical due to persistent subconscious biases, with specific risks noted for the US labor market and over 100 countries retaining laws restricting women's property rights, while wealth transitions to women are expected to be substantial.
- Women are increasingly directing investments toward societal and impact perspectives, with 50% of female billionaires in Asia being self-made, suggesting that empowering female-owned enterprises through procurement strategies yields broad societal benefits.
- Future business models require a hybrid approach where business and technology experts co-develop solutions, alongside the creation of new professions dedicated to managing data quality and cross-checking aggregated sources for accuracy.