Interview
Year of destruction: how October 7th shattered the Middle East
- The Middle East is described as being on the brink of toppling, with conflicts previously linked now potentially unlinked, making it significantly harder to find off ramps for any of these ongoing disputes.
- While initial military and political expectations included a ground invasion lasting about three months ending before Hanukkah, a short campaign aimed at destroying Hamas and restoring security, the war is now unfinished and expected to continue beyond the originally anticipated timeframe.
- Benjamin Netanyahu has promised a "vague, total victory," pledging to fight until the battle is won, while the religious right faction anticipates using the conflict to establish a permanent Israeli presence and rebuild Jewish settlements in Gaza.
- A regional security and diplomatic framework capable of delivering lasting peace is no longer considered a likely outcome, as forces pursuing further conflict and escalation are expected to continue driving events in the region.
- The humanitarian situation in Gaza is projected to worsen, characterized by a further decline in the flow of aid trucks entering daily, with little change or deterioration noted in conditions.
- Risks include the potential for temporary Israeli occupation of parts of Lebanon to become permanent, leading to protracted consequences for Israel, as well as the possibility of Israel targeting Iranian oil infrastructure or leaders, which could trigger significant escalation and wider regional impacts.
- Political stability is not expected to improve even if an election results in the loss of Benjamin Netanyahu's position, as a simple or coherent government willing to end the fighting is not anticipated to emerge.
- Hope for the level of destruction to force an acceptance that the status quo is unsustainable is now viewed as incredibly unlikely, reinforcing the prediction that betting against hope in the Middle East remains the more accurate approach.