Latest Interviews
Showing 1–9 of 9 interview transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs24 min
Will the Fed cut rates in December?
Analysts project a tight December Federal Reserve decision amid data gaps from the government shutdown, while market volatility reflects a recalibration of the AI growth narrative and a corporate shift toward leveraging debt. Corporate sentiment signals an inflection point in capital allocation as hyperscalers increase borrowing and reduce headcounts to chase AI efficiency, echoing historical leverage cycles. Simultaneously, geopolitical shifts and unexpected policy output from the 2025 administration are reshaping global trade flows and currency trends despite persistent inflationary stickiness.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Navigating Year-End Risks: Tariffs, Credit, AI and More
Dominic Wilson, Josh Schifrin, Tom
Panelists Josh Schifrin and Dominic Wilson assessed that U.S. economic stability remains intact despite a peaked credit cycle, projecting Federal Reserve rate cuts to 3% or lower by the end of the year driven by soft labor indicators and benign inflation. While equity valuations for AI leaders and corporate debt levels warrant monitoring, the consensus holds that strong balance sheets prevent a bubble scenario and that market volatility remains largely idiosyncratic rather than systemic. The discussion further noted that fiscal sustainability concerns are currently offset by tariff revenue expectations, allowing the bond market to continue its drift toward lower yields.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
Will macro fuel more stock gains?
Analysts project the Federal Reserve will implement two additional rate cuts by year-end to address labor market risks, targeting a terminal rate near 3% as the economy navigates mixed employment signals and structural uncertainties. This easing cycle, expected to conclude by December 2026, aims to support risk assets and sustain growth while keeping inflation pressures contained amid a bearish outlook for oil and tariff impacts. Despite valuation concerns and skepticism regarding AI capital expenditure sustainability, the prevailing view suggests that resilient fundamentals and policy shifts will maintain upside momentum for the broader market through 2026.
- Goldman Sachs28 min
Markets Brace for Rate Cuts
Economic analysts Josh Schifrin and Dominic Wilson project that the U.S. economy will endure tariff shocks through non-recessionary growth while anticipating a 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cut in September driven by a weakening labor market. Their strategy favors a continued bullish stance on U.S. equities despite valuation froth, offset by risks in the dollar's structural downtrend and global allocation shifts toward Japan and away from Europe. The hosts emphasize that upcoming payroll reports and AI capital efficiency scrutiny will remain the primary catalysts for market direction and central bank policy pacing throughout the remainder of the year.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
More dollar weakness ahead?
Markets have stabilized following a temporary geopolitical scare, with oil supply risks now priced out and volatility premiums unwinding as investors refocus on 2025 themes of trade policy, fiscal negotiations, and artificial intelligence. Analysts anticipate a structural shift toward dollar weakness, recommending the Euro as a primary reserve alternative while noting that US equities remain in a bull market driven by strong earnings and AI capital expenditure cycles. Federal Reserve expectations are gradually shifting toward a more dovish regime with potential rate cuts likely in late 2025, contingent on unemployment rising to the 4.4% range amidst a divided committee and manageable inflation concerns.
- Goldman Sachs27 min
Is the market underpricing recession risks?
Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Dominic Wilson
Following a pause on reciprocal tariffs that reduced immediate policy risk, analysts warn that recession fears remain significant and underpriced despite recent market rallies. While the U.S. dollar is entering a projected structural bear market over the next 6–12 months and oil faces downward pressure from disinflationary tariffs, equity volatility is expected to persist until clear trade outcomes emerge. Federal Reserve rate cuts will likely wait until deep financial stress or labor market cracks appear, with Chair Powell emphasizing the need to avoid unanchoring inflation expectations before acting aggressively.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
What's behind the US equity underperformance?
Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Dominic Wilson
Josh Schifrin and Dominic Wilson have revised their U.S. year-on-year growth forecast down to 1.7% due to policy uncertainty and weak first-quarter data, anticipating a delay in Federal Reserve rate cuts until June. While the team expects the yield curve to steepen and favors front-end fixed income positions to hedge against economic pain, they caution that "U.S. exceptionalism" is fading as European markets like Germany gain traction through significant fiscal expansion. Ultimately, the strategists predict a volatile near-term environment where short-term labor data may deteriorate further before a recovery emerges, challenging the prevailing thesis that the administration will maintain a growth floor.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
Markets post-Fed: Inflation back in focus
Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Don Wilson
The Federal Reserve concluded its initial easing cycle with a 25 basis point rate cut while signaling a shift to a cautious, data-dependent Phase Two that prioritizes inflation progress toward the 2% target. Economists and strategists project 2 to 3 additional cuts in 2025 contingent on cooling price pressures, though markets face binary volatility driven by upcoming tariff announcements and leadership transitions. While underlying inflationary risks in housing moderate and the Fed Put provides downside support, equity performance will increasingly rely on corporate earnings rather than anticipated policy support in the post-election landscape.
- Goldman Sachs30 min
Post-election market outlook
Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Dominic Wilson
Strategists Dominic Wilson and Josh Schifrin analyze the post-election market surge, attributing the rally in US equities, the dollar, and bond yields to a convergence of upgraded growth prospects and pro-growth policy expectations. While the Federal Reserve is forecasted to implement a December rate cut and adopt a cautious "destination mode," the pair highlights persistent tail risks including tariff volatility, valuation concerns, and a heavy concentration of capital in US assets. Their outlook recommends a long-equity and long-dollar portfolio position to navigate an expected year-end transition into a choppier, policy-sensitive trading environment.