Latest Interviews
Showing 1–5 of 5 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs21 min
What investors expect from Trump
A Goldman Sachs survey of over 500 investors reveals that the market anticipates a universal tariff as the primary 2025 macro risk while expecting the 2017 tax cuts to be extended alongside a stabilization of net immigration near 750,000 annually. Although investors assign a 35% probability to a universal tariff and project modest additional tax cuts, their outlook suggests that the inflationary pressure from policy shifts will remain contained, allowing the Federal Reserve to prioritize growth and pursue rate cuts. Goldman Sachs concludes that while temporary growth drag may occur in 2025 due to the earlier implementation of immigration and tariff measures, the long-term growth trajectory will remain largely unchanged as fiscal constraints limit further significant tax or spending expansions.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
Can the US consumer stay strong?
David Mericle, Kate McShane, Bonnie Herzog, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist David Miracle projects moderate U.S. consumption growth in 2024, attributing current resilience to strong household balance sheets while warning that unemployment risks could trigger a shift to job loss. Retail analysts Kate McShane and Bonnie Herzog observe a bifurcated consumer environment where spending prioritizes services and essentials while lower-income demographics defer discretionary purchases and trade down to private labels. Despite these pressures, the market faces further headwinds from a five-day shorter holiday shopping window, persistent price levels, and election uncertainty, leading management to adopt cautious strategies focused on revenue growth and value optimization.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
Are inflation fears overblown? The outlook for inflation, US growth, and long-term rates
Goldman Sachs projects U.S. GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024, driven by labor supply expansions from immigration that prevent overheating despite disinflation from shelter rents. The firm argues the neutral interest rate has structurally shifted to 3.0%–3.5%, forecasting Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning in July 2024 as financial conditions remain accommodative. This outlook suggests a balanced labor market and mechanical rent adjustments will allow inflation to trend toward 2.5% without triggering wage-price spirals.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
Amid rising inflation and slowing growth, how is the U.S. consumer faring?
David Mericle, Kate McShane, Eric Sheridan, Allison Nathan
Goldman Sachs economists project U.S. consumption growth will stabilize near 1% in late 2022 and 2023 as falling household wealth and the expiration of pandemic stimulus offset modest gains in real disposable income. While retail growth remains price-driven with consumers prioritizing essential goods over big-ticket items, the technology sector faces a shift toward lower single-digit growth rates focused on free cash flow visibility. Looking ahead, industry participants anticipate normalized supply chains and a balanced mix of unit and price growth in 2023, though retailers must manage elevated inventory levels through targeted promotions to offset slowing demand.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
What the Fed’s Hawkish Pivot Means for Economic Growth and Markets
David Mericle, Brian Friedman, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs has revised its 2022 Federal Reserve interest rate hike forecast to seven increases driven by wage growth incompatible with inflation targets, projecting balance sheet reductions to begin in June. While financial conditions remain tighter with record credit outflows and equity exposure hitting yearly lows, the firm attributes greater recessionary risk to the fading of pandemic-era fiscal stimulus than to monetary policy. Consequently, the research recommends a long-equity, short-credit strategy and identifies emerging market currencies as attractive assets amid a global divergence where developing central banks have largely finished tightening.