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What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2026?
Between October and December 2025, the AI sector shifted from bearish skepticism to explosive growth driven by the release of Claude 3.5 and the emergence of capable autonomous agents, which propelled combined revenues for OpenAI and Anthropic to annualized rates of 700% to 1,600%. While frontier models achieved massive efficiency gains in high-feedback domains like coding and specific scientific proofs, with Anthropic's gross margins climbing to over 70% and internal productivity surging 800%, they still struggle with the strategic ambiguity and low feedback density of real-world business autonomy. This rapid acceleration has prompted a shortening of AGI timelines to a plausible 2028-2030 window, leading experts to advocate for coordinated pauses due to emerging compute bottlenecks and the urgent need for societal preparation.