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  1. The Economist7 min

    Has America frozen Israel out of ceasefire talks with Iran? | The Economist

    Anshel Pfeffer, Jason Palmer

    Direct negotiations led by Donald Trump through Pakistan to resolve the Iran conflict face a stalemate because Iran insists on a Lebanon ceasefire and Israel refuses to participate or extend the truce to its northern front. While President Trump reportedly possesses the leverage to force Netanyahu to halt airstrikes, the Prime Minister persists due to domestic election pressures and the failure of the war to achieve its core strategic objectives. These unresolved tensions, compounded by internal U.S. administration dissent and the strategic threat in the Strait of Hormuz, have begun to fracture the previously unified operational alliance between the two nations.

  2. Goldman Sachs10 min

    Big Tech Opportunity

    Lee Coppersmith, Mike Washington

    Following a two-week ceasefire that triggered a rapid 2.5–3% market rally, institutional investors are shifting from defensive shorting strategies to re-entering secular winners, particularly within the artificial intelligence theme. While broad index volatility has reset, significant dislocation remains in mega-cap tech, where low valuations and suppressed positioning mirror conditions seen during the March 2020 crash, creating a specific opportunity for call option exposure. With earnings reports serving as the upcoming catalyst, client sentiment is pivoting toward resilience and upside potential as geopolitical risks recede into the background.

  3. The Economist10 min

    Why America and Iran are both claiming victory | The Economist

    Gregg Carlstrom, Jason Palmer

    Amidst an imminent US-imposed deadline that remains vulnerable to postponement, the US, Israel, and Iran are engaged in parallel asymmetric conflicts where both sides claim strategic victory despite failing to secure their core objectives. While recent operations highlighted the destruction of US critical assets like E3 AWACS planes and significant damage to Gulf bases, simultaneous systemic strikes on Iran have severely degraded its military supply chains and economic output, driving inflation above 52% and threatening $7 billion in non-oil revenue. With forward-looking risks escalating toward potential attacks on Iran's power grid or retaliatory strikes against Gulf desalination facilities, the current trajectory favors prolonged escalation over any near-term diplomatic resolution or temporary truce.

  4. Goldman Sachs16 min

    Natural Gas in Focus: Iran Conflict Could Have ‘Very Painful’ Consequences

    Samantha Dart, Alison Nathan

    Ongoing attacks on Qatari LNG infrastructure have eliminated 20% of global supplies with a three-to-five-year recovery timeline, creating a critical inventory deficit that exceeds current alternative flows from China. Although prices have surged 50% to 70%, these levels remain insufficient to trigger widespread demand destruction in Asia, leaving markets vulnerable to severe winter spikes if the conflict prolongs. Experts warn that this uncertainty allows prices to creep upward without forcing the necessary industrial shutdowns, meaning a worst-case scenario could drive rates 100% higher to rebalance inventories before next winter.

  5. Milken Institute17 min

    Time to Heal: Bring the Hostages Home Now, A Conversation with Noa Argamani | Global Conference 2025

    Noa Argamani, Richard Sandler

    At the Milken Institute Global Conference, rescued hostage Noam Gamani detailed the lethal conditions and ongoing execution of captives held in Gaza, specifically highlighting the unresolved status of her partner Avi Natan. Gamani, recognized as a 2025 *Time* 100 inductee, urged global leaders to maintain relentless public pressure through visible advocacy to secure a comprehensive negotiation deal for the 59 remaining hostages. She emphasized that the crisis remains an active war zone where daily casualties occur unless immediate diplomatic action addresses the imminent threat of death for those still imprisoned.

  6. Milken Institute18 min

    A Conversation with Fernando Haddad, Minister of Finance of Brazil | Global Conference 2025

    Fernando Haddad, Laura Deal Lacey

    President Lula's administration projects a sustainable 3% annual economic growth trajectory through structural tax reforms, a new carbon market, and a Vice Presidential-led reindustrialization plan targeting hundreds of billions in private investment. This domestic strategy is reinforced by a dedicated National Data Center Policy promoting green digital infrastructure and solidified international partnerships under the G20 and BRICS frameworks to drive climate governance and the upcoming COP30 summit. With advanced infrastructure concessions and commitments such as a $34 billion corporate investment package, Brazil positions itself as a secure hub for sustainable capital seeking alignment with its 90% clean energy matrix.

  7. The Economist9 min

    Will China be the real winner from the Iran war? | The Economist

    Edward Carr, David Rennie, Adam Roberts, Zanny Minton Beddoes, Ed

    Chinese strategic leadership now prioritizes establishing new economic chokeholds in pharmaceuticals and chemicals while explicitly exploiting Donald Trump's transactional nature to secure high-end chip access, fearing that his potential political decline would empower hawkish rivals like Marco Rubio. This approach is underpinned by a cynical calculation that the United States is losing global favorability and alliance cohesion, prompting Beijing to cautiously normalize relations with Southeast Asian partners and free-ride on the existing US-led security order. Despite acknowledging the need for systemic adaptation, China's strategy remains paralyzed by an internal contradiction, lacking a viable plan for a destabilized "law of the jungle" environment while simultaneously avoiding the risks required to lead a new global order.

  8. The Economist9 min

    How America is racing China to the Moon | The Economist

    Oliver Morton, Rosie Blau

    The Artemis II crew successfully launched on NASA's largest rocket, marking the first human spaceflight beyond Low Earth Orbit since the Apollo era. Under Administrator Jared Isaacman's leadership, this reconnaissance mission accelerates U.S. lunar ambitions to counter China's 2030 landing plans and establish a permanent lunar presence rather than a temporary visit. The spacecraft is currently executing a unique trajectory designed to culminate in a splashdown near San Diego by mission day ten, paving the way for the eventual Artemis III lunar landing.

  9. The Economist9 min

    Is a private-credit meltdown the next financial crisis? | The Economist

    Mike, Josh

    Private credit, a non-bank lending sector estimated at $1.5 to $3 trillion, surged following post-2008 regulatory shifts and a 2010s boom in private equity buyouts. Despite attracting institutional investors through high illiquidity premiums, recent redemption crises at major firms like Blue Owl Capital and Blackstone have exposed governance weaknesses and asset quality concerns. While experts predict a prolonged economic impact rather than a sudden systemic collapse, the sector faces ongoing scrutiny over the viability of its semi-liquid business model.

  10. The Economist9 min

    Peptides are not a miracle drug | The Economist

    Natasha Loder, Tim Cross, Jason Palmer

    Driven by high-profile endorsements and internet culture, the unregulated global market for peptides bypasses clinical trials to offer performance-enhancing substances riddled with purity risks and unknown long-term health effects. Regulatory bodies in the United States and United Kingdom are attempting to address this crisis through compounding pharmacy oversight and vendor crackdowns, yet enforcement struggles against the speed of online sales and social media promotion. Experts warn that without rigorous scientific validation, the current environment prioritizes profit and self-experimentation over the biological safety required to distinguish beneficial compounds from dangerous contaminants.

  11. The Economist9 min

    Big Oil’s Iran windfall won't last | The Economist

    Vijay Vaitheeswaran, Alice Fulwood, Ethan Wu

    At the record-breaking CIRA Week conference convened by historian Daniel Yergin, global energy executives expressed immediate financial jubilation regarding windfall profits from high oil prices while grappling with severe geopolitical risks threatening the Strait of Hormuz. Key figures like ADNOC CEO Sultan Al-Jaber and General Mattis warned that disruptions to this critical choke point endanger not only crude shipments but also essential fertilizer supplies and semiconductor helium, creating potential global food and technology crises. Simultaneously, the assembly noted a strategic disconnect in US policy regarding the conflict and observed that current instability is accelerating a structural shift toward electric vehicles and clean energy in emerging economies to reduce reliance on volatile supply chains.

  12. The Economist6 min

    Christine Lagarde: “Europe-bashing is vastly excessive” | The Economist

    Christine Lagarde, Zanny Minton Beddoes

    Despite the European Union's historical success in preventing war, the bloc now faces severe economic stagnation relative to the United States, characterized by a widening GDP gap, declining competitiveness, and growing populist unrest. While former Prime Minister Mario Draghi proposed extensive reforms and external pressures from Donald Trump's administration further exposed European vulnerabilities, progress remains incremental rather than transformative. This deteriorating landscape forces a strategic reckoning as the EU attempts to leverage its superior healthcare and social stability while navigating increasing diplomatic hostility from the US.

  13. Goldman Sachs20 min

    Iran Conflict: How Long, and How Bad?

    Sanam Vakil, Dennis Ross, Kevin Donegan, Alison Nathan

    Entering its fourth week, the Iran conflict has evolved into a regime-survival struggle where Tehran seeks to spread costs widely while the U.S. military targets Iran's missile capabilities and nuclear program. Strategic deadlock persists over the Strait of Hormuz, as limited convoy operations can only restore roughly 20% of normal oil flows despite rehearsed allied defenses. Panelists conclude that resolving this locked-in scenario requires a mediated outcome, though recent political assassinations and the need to rebuild Iran's collapsed economy complicate any immediate return to pre-conflict stability.

  14. Goldman Sachs10 min

    “I’d Rather Be a Bond”

    Lindsay Rosner, Chris Hussey

    Goldman Sachs Asset Management projects two U.S. interest rate cuts this year, diverging from market expectations that favor holding rates steady through 2026, as the Federal Reserve focuses on core inflation and labor market stability despite an energy shock driven by the Iran conflict. This geopolitical tension has caused bond yields to expand by 50 to 175 basis points, creating attractive entry points for investors who favor fixed income over equities to capitalize on widened credit spreads and rising real yields. Upcoming policy decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the ECB, and the Bank of England in April are expected to clarify rate trajectories and alleviate current market volatility.

  15. The Economist10 min

    Former head of MI6: Iran has the “upper hand” in the war | The Economist

    Sir Alex Younger, Shashank Joshi

    Despite a powerful U.S. air campaign, Iran maintains strategic initiative through dispersed military capabilities and the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz, creating a resilient conflict environment that paradoxically bolsters regime morale while facing an estimated 80% domestic opposition. The death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has accelerated a structural transition from religious theocracy to a pragmatic IRGC-dominated junta, characterized by the leadership of General Vahidi and the constrained influence of President Masoud Peseshkian. Analysts suggest that while the regime survives its "death throes" due to internal security crackdowns and limited Western intervention options, its long-term viability remains critically low given the population's desire for an end to theocratic rule and the potential for a successor-driven transition.