Interview, Panel, Fireside Chat, Conference Presentation
Iran Conflict: How Long, and How Bad?
- The Iran conflict has entered its fourth week, characterized by high uncertainty regarding duration and significant disruptions to energy supplies, with headlines oscillating between escalation and de-escalation.
- Sanam Vakil (Chatham House) characterizes the conflict from Iran's perspective as an existential "regime change war," where the Islamic Republic fights for survival against perceived Western objectives to overthrow it.
- Iran aims to spread the war's costs widely and horizontally to create a deterrent effect, ensuring that any future peace deal includes guarantees preventing a return to conflict within the next one to six years.
- Iran calculated that conceding to the ceasefire after last summer's 12-day war was premature, viewing the resulting perception of weakness as an opportunity to launch a new offensive to restore credibility.
- President Trump initially framed the conflict as a short-term war with a planned pause on days four or five, but the administration has since shifted objectives and timelines after realizing Iran was prepared for combat as of February 28.
- The U.S. military aims to destroy or degrade Iran's ballistic missile capabilities, defense industrial complex, and remaining nuclear program, a goal considered militarily achievable despite Iran's asymmetrical use of low-cost drones.
- The conflict has become a "locked-in" scenario where the President cannot claim victory while Iran maintains leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively shut down despite not being formally closed.
- Iran's domestic strategy involves using the external war to manage internal existential threats, utilizing heightened security measures to suppress dissent following brutal repressions of January protests.
- Sanam Vakil notes that while domestic protests are likely, a successful revolution remains unlikely due to the opposition's deep divisions and lack of a unified "day-after" alternative plan.
- Ambassador Dennis Ross identifies the Strait of Hormuz as the critical pivot point; President Trump cannot unilaterally declare victory if Iran retains the ability to control traffic in and out of the strait.
- Ross argues that a mediated outcome is currently the only viable path to a quick resolution, but this is complicated by the recent killing of Ali Larianjani, a key leader with cross-factional credibility including ties to the Revolutionary Guard.
- Ross highlights the strategic importance of Chinese and Russian involvement, noting that China's heavy dependency on Middle Eastern oil creates an incentive for Beijing to pressure Iran if exports remain restricted.
- Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan confirms the U.S. and allies have rehearsed contingency plans for 15 years to secure the strait, with participation expected from France, the UK, Greece, Australia, Japan, and South Korea.
- Donegan outlines a "moving sanctuary of security" strategy leveraging complete air superiority over the Iranian coast, layered with drone, cyber, and satellite assets to escort convoys through the strait.
- Donegan warns that while a convoy system can get some ships through, it can only achieve approximately 20% of normal daily flow due to the logistical necessity of escorting ships back into the Gulf.
- The return of global energy flows to pre-conflict levels requires a shift in trust, as shipping, insurance, and LNG companies will require significant lag time to verify that Iran has ceased threatening vessels.
- The IRGC's control over the Strait of Hormuz is currently a primary concern, though Iran's leadership faces the long-term necessity of restoring its collapsed economy and lifting sanctions to survive post-war.
- The U.S. retains leverage by holding the key to the Strait of Hormuz via its potential to blockade Karg Island and intercept the "shadow fleet" carriers moving Iranian oil.
- Forward-looking consensus among the panelists suggests that restoring normal oil flows and ending the conflict will require extended time, as there is no immediate "on-off switch" for the violence or shipping disruptions.