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  1. Goldman Sachs20 min

    Iran Conflict: How Long, and How Bad?

    Sanam Vakil, Dennis Ross, Kevin Donegan, Alison Nathan

    Entering its fourth week, the Iran conflict has evolved into a regime-survival struggle where Tehran seeks to spread costs widely while the U.S. military targets Iran's missile capabilities and nuclear program. Strategic deadlock persists over the Strait of Hormuz, as limited convoy operations can only restore roughly 20% of normal oil flows despite rehearsed allied defenses. Panelists conclude that resolving this locked-in scenario requires a mediated outcome, though recent political assassinations and the need to rebuild Iran's collapsed economy complicate any immediate return to pre-conflict stability.