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Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs18 min
Can Stocks Rally With a Hawkish Fed?
Tony Pasquariello, Josh Schiffrin, Dominic Wilson
A panel of financial experts analyzes shifting market expectations for a tightening cycle of two to four rate hikes, emphasizing that oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel remain the critical variable for future inflation and a potential Federal Reserve pivot. Current fixed income and equity markets reflect a "higher yield world" driven by AI capital competition and fiscal deficits, yet demonstrate resilience with U.S. GDP projected to hold near 2% and unemployment trending lower despite energy headwinds. Strategists suggest that while the environment remains range-bound, a decisive drop in oil prices could catalyze an all-assets rally, prompting recommendations to utilize call options for the upside while monitoring the Fed's hawkish stance.
- Goldman Sachs10 min
A Vaccine-Led Recovery
Goldman Sachs Research has revised its central growth case to a 2021 recovery trajectory following a surge in vaccine approval probabilities from 10% to 50% by late October. While near-term growth forecasts for the US and Europe face downward pressure from rising case counts, the firm projects a 2% GDP uplift by year-end 2021, driving market rotations into commodity and emerging market sectors. Investors are advised to navigate interim volatility caused by operational distribution risks and policy gaps, relying on the vaccine's timeline as a medium-term anchor for global economic acceleration starting in the second quarter of 2021.
- Goldman Sachs12 min
Pricing the Probability of Virus Risks
A research framework establishes three economic growth scenarios mapped to implied S&P 500 levels, ranging from a baseline recovery at 3,250 to an upside potential of 3,520 should a vaccine arrive by early 2021. Market dynamics reflect a tug-of-war between accelerating case numbers and emerging stabilization efforts, with volatility resolving as investors weigh risks of renewed restrictions against growing probability of a successful vaccine. Near-term catalysts will likely determine whether moderate mitigation measures can control infections sufficiently to relax downside fears and sustain current valuations.