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Can Stocks Rally With a Hawkish Fed?

Tony Pasquariello, Josh Schiffrin, Dominic Wilson

A panel of financial experts analyzes shifting market expectations for a tightening cycle of two to four rate hikes, emphasizing that oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel remain the critical variable for future inflation and a potential Federal Reserve pivot. Current fixed income and equity markets reflect a "higher yield world" driven by AI capital competition and fiscal deficits, yet demonstrate resilience with U.S. GDP projected to hold near 2% and unemployment trending lower despite energy headwinds. Strategists suggest that while the environment remains range-bound, a decisive drop in oil prices could catalyze an all-assets rally, prompting recommendations to utilize call options for the upside while monitoring the Fed's hawkish stance.