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  1. The Economist9 min

    Why America is stepping away from the institutions it built | The Economist

    John, Ed, Charlotte

    U.S. foreign policy is undergoing a structural shift from values-based engagement to a transactional approach, driven by a bipartisan consensus that the post-World War II order has failed to deliver sufficient economic returns or strategic advantages. Former President Trump's 2015 platform catalyzed this pivot by framing the abandonment of multilateral institutions as a correction to decades of free-riding, leading to increased reliance on tariffs and coercive trade rather than traditional alliances. Experts project three potential futures for this realignment: a renegotiated U.S. hegemony, a fragmented status quo, or a chaotic descent into systemic collapse triggered by unchecked military coercion.

  2. The Economist8 min

    Is Russia the real winner from the war in Iran? | The Economist

    Zanny Minton Beddoes, Shashank, Greg, Ed

    A strategic assessment highlights Russia's improved economic resilience and reduced incentive for negotiations, while Gulf states face a binary choice between dealing with Iran or deepening US security ties at the cost of regional stability. The conflict simultaneously exposes critical US industrial limitations in interceptor stockpiles despite demonstrating superior technical execution, a dynamic that China interprets as evidence of American war fatigue. Consequently, these developments entrench Russia's position and accelerate Beijing's military modernization efforts focused on endurance and missile capabilities.

  3. The Economist9 min

    Is ICE a threat to American democracy?

    Charlotte, Ed, Steve

    President Trump's administration has aggressively expanded federal authority by deploying militarized agents to enforce immigration policies, culminating in the fatal shooting of an unarmed nurse and the establishment of unchecked executive control over enforcement actions. While a recent poll shows 92% of respondents view ICE as a threat to democracy, discussion leaders emphasize that only legal accountability for lethal officers, rather than public outrage or "supine" congressional action, can effectively halt this erosion of democratic norms. As the administration continues to pursue political retribution beyond statutory mandates, the critical challenge for the coming year remains whether institutions and civil society will force a confrontation to prevent the normalization of these unchecked executive powers.

  4. The Economist10 min

    Is China the new superpower?

    Zanny Minton Beddoes, Edward Carr, Ant, David, Ed, Alice

    The analysis examines the People's Liberation Army's advanced regional military capabilities and manufacturing dominance while highlighting severe internal economic stagnation, including three years of deflation and rising youth unemployment. Although China lacks the global projection power of the United States, its strategic focus on national security and superior hypersonic technology positions it to dominate the Indo-Pacific region. Experts conclude that while Beijing will achieve significant geopolitical strength, its long-term stability faces challenges from domestic discontent and an overreliance on foreign markets that it cannot fully control.

  5. The Economist9 min

    What we know about the Ukraine peace plan

    Zanny Minton Beddoes, Edward Carr, Olly, Ed, Shashank, Zannie, Chris

    Emerging from Geneva talks, a draft treaty to partition Ukraine has evolved from a 28-point plan to an 18-point document featuring relaxed military caps and the potential removal of constitutional bans on NATO membership. While special representative Steve Witkoff allegedly advised Russian negotiators on pressure tactics and leaked communications cast suspicion on the security of the process, key disputes remain regarding the status of Donbass, the enforceability of vague US security guarantees, and the exclusion of European military forces. Analysts warn that despite the removal of restrictive weapon bans, the proposed framework relies on unenforceable terms and creates a strategic vacuum for Ukraine's post-war defense.

  6. The Economist8 min

    What will China do in 2022?

    Ed, Zannie

    Xi Jinping is positioning himself for a historic third term by centralizing party power through aggressive regulatory crackdowns on the private sector and strict domestic control, which he sustains amidst rising nationalism despite ongoing human rights controversies. This consolidation coincides with a shift toward international assertiveness and a managed geopolitical standoff with the United States, where deep economic interdependence complicates traditional Cold War narratives. As tensions regarding Taiwan remain high with a significant risk of conflict within the next decade, the strategic dilemma for the Biden administration involves balancing firm security guarantees against the potential for destabilizing Asian alliances.