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Can Brazil Survive Bolsonaro?

Bolsonaro, Joe Biden, Lula, Sarah Maslin

Set against Rio de Janeiro's backdrop of systemic corruption, high police violence, and pandemic-driven healthcare strain, President Jair Bolsonaro navigated a political crisis marked by Brazil's highest global death toll in April 2020 and a catastrophic rise in Amazon deforestation. Although his 2018 election capitalized on anti-corruption sentiment and evangelical support through an initial emergency welfare program, his approval ratings have since collapsed below 30% due to soaring unemployment, the withdrawal of economic aid, and failed anti-corruption reforms that protect his family. As the nation approaches the 2022 presidential rematch between Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, democratic institutions like the Supreme Court continue to check executive overreach while analysts warn of escalating tension between the military, the government, and long-term democratic stability.