Interview, Press Conference, Other
Can Brazil Survive Bolsonaro?
- Rio de Janeiro serves as a microcosm for Brazil's national crises, characterized by systemic corruption (e.g., dirty money in World Cup stadiums, polluted bays), high police violence (28 killed in a single favela raid), and strained healthcare infrastructure coping with the pandemic.
- President Jair Bolsonaro, a former army captain elected with 55% of the vote in 2018, faces mounting pressure due to a response to the coronavirus that resulted in the highest national death rate globally in April 2020 and one death per 500 Brazilians.
- While Bolsonaro dismissed the virus as a "flu" and refused lockdowns, his government initially secured popularity by implementing a massive emergency welfare program that lifted one million people out of poverty by the end of 2020.
- Bolsonaro's election was driven by a rebellion against the Workers' Party (PT) following the "Lava Jato" corruption scandal and a 2014 recession that ended Brazil's economic boom (GDP grew 7.5% in 2010).
- Support for Bolsonaro was heavily cemented by the evangelical community, which is growing rapidly to become the country's largest religious denomination, appealing to conservative voters regarding family values and religious faith.
- Recent data indicates a sharp decline in Bolsonaro's approval ratings, falling below 30%, driven by the cessation of economic aid, an 18-year high in unemployment, and poverty rates rising to their highest level in over a decade.
- Environmental records under Bolsonaro are described as catastrophic, with Amazon deforestation rates spiking after his 2019 inauguration due to budget cuts, the removal of competent staff, and signals of state tolerance for illegal logging.
- Corruption risks remain high as Bolsonaro abandoned anti-corruption reforms and negotiated with parties tainted by past scandals to protect his sons, who are currently under investigation for corruption.
- Democratic institutions have so far checked executive overreach, with Congress and the Supreme Court blocking proposals such as the right to openly carry firearms, though the pandemic has increased calls for impeachment.
- Forward-looking concerns highlight the 2022 presidential election, featuring a potential rematch between Bolsonaro and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with warnings that a rejected election result could replicate the US Capitol attacks.
- Analysts suggest that while the country's young democracy has withstood Bolsonaro's assaults thus far, the coming years will be "complicated and tense" as the military may face a choice between the president and democratic stability.