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Why are wars getting longer?

Robert Guest

Rising global conflict intensity is driven by the erosion of international norms, increased foreign state intervention, and economic incentives that sustain violence in resource-scarce regions. Geopolitical shifts have created power vacuums allowing regional actors and criminal networks to fuel prolonged civil wars, while climate change further exacerbates violence through resource scarcity and displacement. Although short-term strategies like secret negotiations and inclusive peace processes offer hope, experts project a future where wars remain protracted and life expectancy remains low in the world's most vulnerable nations.