Other
Why are wars getting longer?
- Global conflict intensity is rising, with the average duration of ongoing wars increasing from 13 years in the mid-1980s to nearly 20 years by 2021.
- Current hotspots include active outbreaks in Sudan, Ethiopia, Myanmar, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where violence has already caused hundreds of deaths.
- Erosion of global norms is a primary driver, exemplified by Russia's violation of the UN Charter during its invasion of Ukraine.
- Impunity for atrocities has become widespread, with few cases in Sudan resulting in punishment for mass slaughter or rape.
- The number of conflicts involving multiple insurgencies within a single country has tripled since 2000, complicating compromise.
- Foreign state involvement in civil wars has increased 12-fold since the end of the Cold War, now affecting nearly half of all active conflicts.
- External powers face less urgency to negotiate peace because they do not bear the direct domestic costs of war, such as bombings on their own cities.
- A geopolitical vacuum emerged as the US focused on competition with China and Russia, allowing regional and medium-sized powers to intervene.
- In Sudan, Egypt has intervened on one side while the rebel leader allied with the Russian mercenary group Wagner.
- Economic incentives sustain conflicts in "hot, poor countries" where power correlates with corruption and resource theft.
- Government soldiers in the DRC often earn negligible salaries in capitals but profit from extortion and embezzlement at the front lines.
- Rebel groups sustain operations by looting minerals and timber, utilizing the internationalization of organized crime to launder profits.
- Climate change is catalyzing violence in resource-scarce regions like the Sahel, Myanmar, Syria, and Pakistan.
- Droughts and floods displace farmers and herders, leading to ethnic clashes over land; a study in Mali identified 70 conflicts specifically triggered by land and grazing disputes.
- Jihadist groups exploit these tensions by offering "divine justice" and returning pasture land to displaced groups.
- Jihadist groups prolong conflicts due to impossible demands, high follower motivation, and tactics that deter international peacekeepers, preventing trust-building with locals.
- Short-term conflict resolution strategies that show promise include:
- Initiating secret negotiations long before belligerents publicly express readiness (e.g., South Africa, Northern Ireland).
- Including designated "bad actors" in political settlements to prevent return to fighting.
- Integrating women and civil society groups into peace processes, which correlates with longer-lasting peace.
- Implementing targeted institutional reforms, such as police restructuring in Liberia, to reduce recruitment into rebel groups.
- Long-term solutions require decades to establish trust in institutions and effectively address climate change.
- The speaker projects a near-future era where life remains short and wars remain long in hot, poor nations.