Latest Interviews

Will Fed policy trigger a US recession?

Allison Nathan, Claudia Sahm, Bill Dudley, Rob Kaplan, Alyssa Nathan

Following the technical activation of the Sahm Rule in July 2024, leading economists are divided on the likelihood of an imminent U.S. recession, with estimates ranging from Goldman Sachs' 20% probability to Bill Dudley's 60% forecast based on conflicting interpretations of labor supply shifts and demand destruction. While Fed Chair Powell signals impending rate cuts, experts like Claudia Sahm and Dudley warn that monetary policy risks lagging behind structural economic shifts, potentially turning a soft landing into an unforced recession if the central bank fails to act decisively. The prevailing base case anticipates a mild downturn or no contraction if the Federal Reserve successfully lowers borrowing costs, though divergent views persist regarding whether current unemployment data reflects a genuine demand shock or a temporary labor force anomaly.

The Credit Market Crunch | Asia Summit 2023

Tzu Mi Liew, Scot French, Lee Kruter, Amy McGarrity

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Beyond the bullets: we go to Ukraine

Andriy Khlyvnyuk, Jason, Oliver Carroll, Sarah Larniuk, Yevhen Klopotenko

Two-and-a-half years into Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine contends with critical military pressures on the Pokrovsk front and a controversial Kursk incursion that has emboldened allies while straining domestic reinforcements. Simultaneously, the nation is undergoing a profound cultural renaissance that rejects post-Soviet identity through government bans on Russian media, the resurgence of traditional fashion, and culinary initiatives championed by Chef Yevhen Klopotenko to reclaim Ukrainian heritage. Despite these symbolic victories and the mobilization of folk traditions, civilians face relentless energy attacks and deep-seated anxieties regarding long-term economic stability and post-war survival.

Health Innovations to Solve Global Changes | Asia Summit 2023

Esther Krofah, Laurence Lien, Kathryn North, Caroline Riady, Budi Sadikin

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The sound of fury: pressure builds within Israel

Jason Palmer, Rosie Bloor, Anshul Pfeffer, Emily Steinmark, Tim Cross

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defied international pressure and domestic protests following the recovery of six dead Israeli hostages, even as the US criticized his efforts and Britain suspended arms sales. Concurrently, studies reveal a persistent gender gap in generative AI adoption, where high-achieving women self-impose bans due to ethical concerns despite hiring premiums for AI expertise. Meanwhile, new research in *Science Advances* proposes using artificial metal dust to warm Mars, offering a method 5,000 times more mass-efficient than previous terraforming concepts.

We’re still in the early innings with AI.

YC-backed ventures like DoorDash, Instacart, and Uber exemplify smartphone-driven success stories that launched roughly four years after the iPhone's release. These examples demonstrate that determining which ideas will succeed and where value will accumulate requires a significant period of maturation before market dominance can be achieved.

Extremes come true: Germany’s far-right triumph

Rosie Bloor, Tom Nuttall, John McDermott, Carla Suburrana Artus

In recent state elections in Germany's Saxony and Thuringia, the extremist far-right AfD secured first place in Thuringia and finished second in Saxony, creating a complex political deadlock that challenges the ruling national coalition's standing ahead of September's federal vote. Simultaneously, the newly formed BSW splinter party emerged as a significant third force, forcing the conservative CDU to navigate the traditional "cordon sanitaire" against cooperating with the far-right while considering unstable alliances with ideologically opposed groups. This electoral surge in eastern Germany is driven by long-standing regional neglect and high voter volatility, intensifying scrutiny on Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government.

The No.1 Productivity Expert: 10,000 Hours Is A Lie! This Morning Habit Is Ruining Your Day!

David Epstein

Researcher David Epstein challenges the myth of the 10,000-hour rule and early specialization, arguing that broad, delayed diversification and high-failure-rate experimentation better predict long-term success across sports, careers, and creative fields. He advocates for a "scientist of self" approach where individuals leverage interleaved practice and diverse "zigzag" career paths to enhance trainability, while organizations must counteract the Einstellung effect by cultivating neurodiverse teams and embracing human-AI collaboration. Ultimately, the talk posits that adaptability, rather than rigid adherence to a singular passion or narrow expertise, is the critical driver for navigating complex, rapidly evolving environments.

Alex Lawsen on his advice for students

Alex Lawsen, Keiran Harris

This comprehensive guide establishes a framework for optimizing academic performance by aligning study strategies with specific objectives, shifting from deep conceptual exploration during the academic year to targeted exam simulation in the final third. It advocates for active recall techniques like Anki and error analysis while providing a structured approach to navigating educational systems, from choosing versatile subjects early on to preparing for competitive interviews through deliberate practice. Additionally, the material integrates mental health considerations, such as managing burnout and identifying neurodivergence, to ensure that students build sustainable habits and versatile skills rather than chasing rigid grade targets.

In conversation with Reid Hoffman & Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Reid Hoffman, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Sacks, Jay Cowell, Jason Calacanis, David Friedberg, Chamath Palihapitiya

Tech leaders including Reid Hoffman, David Sacks, and Chamath Palihapitiya discussed NVIDIA's projected transition from training to inference chips and OpenAI's corporate governance while criticizing FTC antitrust policies for stifling venture capital exits. The panelists also engaged in contentious debates over the 2024 US election, analyzing the Democratic Party's pivot to Kamala Harris and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s strategic alliance with Donald Trump on issues like the Ukraine war and censorship. Finally, the group examined systemic health crises attributed to industrial food subsidies and regulatory capture, contrasting conspiracy-driven narratives with market incentive explanations.

For whom the well tolls: Why we must price water

Helen Fisher, Rosie Bloor, Robert Guest, Annie Crable, Anne Rowe

Global water scarcity, projected to shrink per capita freshwater supply by 29% by century's end, is driving social unrest in Chile and geopolitical tensions over the Nile, while climate-induced floods have displaced 1.5 billion people over the past two decades. Simultaneously, U.S. border policy shifts have triggered a surge in migrant crossings at the northern frontier, where over 19,000 encounters occurred last year as smuggling networks rerouted travelers from Mexico and India through deadly northern corridors. In a related scientific development, the late anthropologist Helen Fisher established that romantic love is a distinct neurobiological system and developed a four-part temperament inventory used globally to manage interpersonal dynamics.

Highlights: Edge cases of sentience & acting ethically despite massive uncertainty | Jonathan Birch

Jonathan Birch, Luisa

Philosophy professor Dr. Jonathan Birch presents *The Edge of Sentience*, a work analyzing how "inductive risk" has historically led medical and scientific experts to undervalue potential suffering in neonates, vegetative patients, and animals due to overconfidence in current consciousness models. Drawing on cases like Jill Lawson's advocacy and Adrian Owen's fMRI research, Birch highlights the dangers of relying solely on expert consensus by proposing that citizens' assemblies should complement scientific input when setting bioethics policies for emerging technologies like neural organoids and artificial general intelligence. The book further argues for separating the legal right to abortion from debates on fetal sentience to prevent future scientific advancements from eroding bodily autonomy protections.

Nvincible? What could curb Nvidia’s supremacy

Rosie Bloor, Jan Piotrowski, Aaron Braun, Stanley Pignal

NVIDIA's stock price declined despite record $30 billion quarterly revenue and a $3 trillion market cap, as investors weigh supply chain bottlenecks from TSMC capacity limits against rising competition from AMD and cloud providers designing their own chips. Simultaneously, Highway 1 along California's Central Coast faces existential threats from climate-driven erosion and landslides that threaten a $9 billion tourism industry, sparking debate over whether to continue repairing the crumbling infrastructure or abandon the route entirely. In Europe, the cultural practice of public nudity is retreating to an aging demographic of over-65s, driven by the deterrent effects of social media, smartphone surveillance, and shifting social norms among younger generations.

Andrew Huberman: You Must Control Your Dopamine! The Shocking Truth Behind Cold Showers!

Andrew Huberman, Chris Williamson

Neuroscientist Dr. Andrew Huberman leverages his personal history of overcoming teenage depression to explain the mechanisms of neuroplasticity and dopamine, distinguishing between pleasure and motivation to outline protocols for resetting the brain's reward system. He prescribes specific behavioral interventions, including morning sunlight exposure, deliberate cold exposure, and non-sleep deep rest, to optimize alertness, mood, and long-term cognitive health without relying on pharmacological stimulants. Huberman further addresses the importance of social connection in mental resilience while cautioning against the pitfalls of fame and high-intensity digital stimuli, a framework he intends to formalize in his upcoming April 2025 book, *Protocols: An Operating Manual for the Human Body*.

SB 1047: California's AI bill & its potential to shape US AI policy | Nathan Calvin

Nathan Calvin, Luisa Rodriguez

California Senate Bill 1047 mandates that developers of AI models requiring over $100 million in compute resources implement rigorous safety assessments, third-party audits, and emergency shutdown protocols to mitigate critical harms defined as mass casualties or damages exceeding $500 million. Sponsored by Senator Scott Weiner with backing from prominent safety researchers and labor unions, the legislation codifies a negligence-based liability framework that forces covered entities to publish test results and maintain guardrails without creating a new regulatory agency. Although opposed by major industry players and some politicians who fear stifling innovation or interfering with federal authority, the bill leverages California's market size to establish a global standard for accountable AI development before potential federal action occurs.