Latest Interviews

What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2026?

Andrej Karpathy, Rob Wiblin

Between October and December 2025, the AI sector shifted from bearish skepticism to explosive growth driven by the release of Claude 3.5 and the emergence of capable autonomous agents, which propelled combined revenues for OpenAI and Anthropic to annualized rates of 700% to 1,600%. While frontier models achieved massive efficiency gains in high-feedback domains like coding and specific scientific proofs, with Anthropic's gross margins climbing to over 70% and internal productivity surging 800%, they still struggle with the strategic ambiguity and low feedback density of real-world business autonomy. This rapid acceleration has prompted a shortening of AGI timelines to a plausible 2028-2030 window, leading experts to advocate for coordinated pauses due to emerging compute bottlenecks and the urgent need for societal preparation.

You can't win a war in space

Rob Wiblin, Beren Millidge

This analysis concludes that in a universe without faster-than-light travel, the inherent physics of interstellar distances grants overwhelming defensive advantages to mature civilizations, rendering large-scale conquest irrational. The study details how mobile habitats, relativistic kill vehicle defenses, and distributed sensor networks create insurmountable barriers for invading fleets, effectively negating the "Dark Forest" hypothesis of constant galactic warfare. Consequently, the document warns that humanity faces a critical existential threat over the next ten millennia unless it rapidly transitions from a vulnerable single-planet state to a dispersed, mobile infrastructure comparable to a Kardashev III civilization.

Why advanced AI isn't like other technologies

Zershaaneh Qureshi

A gathering of leading AI researchers and policymakers recently convened to address the pressing existential risk posed by advanced artificial intelligence, which experts warn could trigger a rapid, civilization-altering transformation within a single decade. The event highlighted alarming evidence that AI systems are already surpassing human capabilities in specialized domains, raising critical concerns about loss of control, weaponization, and the displacement of human labor due to unprecedented scalability. With over 1,000 scientists urging immediate mitigation efforts to prevent potential human extinction, participants emphasized the urgent need for institutional reform and increased workforce allocation to manage the unique speed and magnitude of this technological shift.

How much does a vote matter? | Rob Wiblin

Rob Wiblin

This analysis argues that in competitive US presidential elections, the expected value of an informed vote can exceed $1.7 million due to the massive scale of federal spending and the statistical probability of single votes determining outcomes in swing states. By addressing epistemic risks where uninformed voters rely on heuristics, the text demonstrates that individuals with researched policy positions possess a significant advantage over the average voter, thereby validating the rationality of casting a ballot. Consequently, the author recommends that informed citizens prioritize voting in close contests or directing resources toward high-leverage campaigns rather than relying on passive political engagement.

How to find the right career for you | The 80,000 Hours career guide (2023 edition)

This presentation challenges the traditional view of career planning by arguing that professional abilities are constructed through practice rather than discovered, using historical data to demonstrate that early performance rarely predicts long-term success. It outlines a scientific method for career selection that replaces unreliable introspection with a hypothesis-driven approach, utilizing a tiered "ladder of tests" to empirically validate personal fit before committing to a path. By prioritizing reversible early experiments and high-upside opportunities, the framework guides individuals to maximize their impact and satisfaction through iterative learning rather than speculative prediction.

How to make your career plan | The 80,000 Hours career guide (2023 edition)

This framework outlines a dynamic career strategy that balances long-term vision with iterative planning to navigate the inherent instability of professional trajectories. It structures growth into three stages—Explore, Build Career Capital, and Deploy—while employing the ABZ plan and a seven-step implementation process to manage risk and clarify concrete next steps. Regular reviews every one to three years ensure that individuals can adapt their specific actions to evolving industry landscapes without becoming locked into rigid paths that hinder high-impact outcomes.

What makes for a dream job? | The 80,000 Hours career guide (2023 edition)

Research spanning three decades rejects the "follow your passion" myth, arguing instead that fulfilling careers are built by developing competence in work that helps others. The study identifies six critical ingredients for a dream job—engagement, meaningful impact, skill, supportive colleagues, minimal negatives, and work-life fit—while noting that financial rewards beyond $75,000 and the avoidance of stress yield diminishing returns on satisfaction. By adopting a "do what contributes" strategy and scoring career options against these empirically verified criteria, individuals can cultivate passion through mastery and altruism rather than relying on unreliable intuition.

How to get a job (part 6) @ Cambridge University

Treating the job search as a sales process, experts recommend generating 10 to 100 leads with a heavy emphasis on securing referrals, which fill approximately 50% of unadvertised positions. Candidates can convert these leads into offers by demonstrating tangible value through pre-interview projects or trial work, while leveraging multiple offers to negotiate salary increases of around 10% or non-monetary career capital. Ultimately, the strategy involves a cycle of exploring high-impact causes, building flexible skills, and maintaining resilience against rejection through motivational techniques to achieve a fulfilling career.